Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based TacticsTurn-Based Tactics + Card Battler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Card Battler Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + Card Battler

Of 431 developers who shipped a Card Battler Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 763 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $260k, ×422 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 763 games are announced against 286 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 763 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + Card Battler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 431
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.2k → $5.4k → $2.5k → $2.2k → $1.3k → $1.7k → $450 (still earning) → $210 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + Card Battler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 431
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $9.3k (exactly $9,291)
Top 5% $265k (exactly $264,831)
Developers, 2 yr 431
Released games 912
Announced 763
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 95% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 25%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Card Battler
effort 3 / 10 · high · card rules plus simple encounter logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics, Card Battler; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Deckbuilding, Card Game
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 18,795 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $600, 1 in 4 over $9.2k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 193 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 763 games are announced against 286 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  9. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  12. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Marvel's Midnight Suns older $59.99 17,060 82% 512k $31M (exactly $30,702,882) Firaxis Games
Monster Train older $24.99 19,950 95% 599k $15M (exactly $14,956,515) Shiny Shoe
Wildfrost older $19.99 8,175 82% 245k $4.9M (exactly $4,902,548) Deadpan Games, Gaziter
Black Book older $24.99 5,306 93% 159k $4.0M (exactly $3,977,908) Morteshka
Gordian Quest older $19.99 5,259 88% 158k $3.2M (exactly $3,153,822) Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holding… (Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holdings Pte Ltd)
StarVaders $24.99 3,760 97% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,818,872) Pengonauts
Esports Godfather older $19.99 4,319 90% 130k $2.6M (exactly $2,590,104) Asteroid Game Studio
Roguebook older $24.99 3,446 84% 103k $2.6M (exactly $2,583,466) Abrakam Entertainment SA
天外武林 (Traveler of Wuxia) older $24.99 3,151 85% 95k $2.4M (exactly $2,362,305) 香港商河洛互動娛樂股份有限公司
Touhou: Lost Branch of Legend · EA older $29.99 2,036 92% 61k $1.8M (exactly $1,831,789) Alioth Studio
Drop Duchy $14.99 2,962 89% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,332,011) Sleepy Mill Studio
Cross Blitz $22.99 1,557 74% 47k $1.1M (exactly $1,073,863) Tako Boy Studios LLC
Yao-Guai Hunter $16.99 2,082 83% 62k $1.1M (exactly $1,061,195) MyACG Studio
LONESTAR $12.99 2,183 90% 65k $851k (exactly $850,715) Math Tide
As We Descend · EA $19.99 1,336 86% 40k $801k (exactly $801,199) Box Dragon
Mega Man Star Force Legacy Collection $39.99 657 96% 20k $788k (exactly $788,203) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Black Jacket $14.99 1,751 91% 53k $787k (exactly $787,425) Mi'pu'mi Games GmbH
Death Howl $19.99 1,301 92% 39k $780k (exactly $780,210) The Outer Zone
Deck of Haunts $19.99 1,206 84% 36k $723k (exactly $723,238) Mantis

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.