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Should I ship a Perma Death Card Battler?
Card Battler + Perma Death
Of 72 developers who shipped a Perma Death Card Battler in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 106 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.4k, ×7.2 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $210k, ×452 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 106 games are announced against 46 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $538 (exactly $538) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.4k (exactly $3,414) |
| Top 25% | $21k (exactly $21,136) |
| Top 5% | $215k (exactly $214,693) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 72 |
| Released games | 116 |
| Announced | 106 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Card Battler
- effort 3 / 10 · high · card rules plus simple encounter logic
- Perma Death
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Card Battler, Perma Death; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Deckbuilding, Roguelike
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Difficult
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 86% positive over 6,038 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 106 games are announced against 46 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Card Battler with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + ArcadeFair
- + Bullet HellFair
- + GamblingFair
- + 2D FighterFair
- + ZombiesFair
- + Point & ClickFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + Traditional RoguelikeFair
- + Party GameFair
- + SolitaireLong shot
- + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds
- + CRPGPoor odds
Comparable games
Wildfrost 2023 · $4.9M 
Trials of Fire 2021 · $1.8M 
SpellRogue 2025 · $939k 
LONESTAR 2025 · $851k 
Rune Coliseum 2024 · EA · $505k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Wildfrost | older | $19.99 | 8,175 82% | 245k | $4.9M (exactly $4,902,548) | Deadpan Games, Gaziter |
| | Trials of Fire | older | $19.99 | 2,975 86% | 89k | $1.8M (exactly $1,784,107) | Whatboy Games |
| | SpellRogue | $19.99 | 1,566 86% | 47k | $939k (exactly $939,130) | Guidelight Games | |
| | LONESTAR | $12.99 | 2,183 90% | 65k | $851k (exactly $850,715) | Math Tide | |
| | Rune Coliseum | · EA | $18.99 | 886 79% | 27k | $505k (exactly $504,754) | Rafale Software |
 | Death Roads: Tournament | older | $14.99 | 729 80% | 22k | $328k (exactly $327,831) | The Knights of Unity |
 | Railroads & Catacombs | $19.99 | 358 73% | 11k | $215k (exactly $214,693) | MadRails | |
 | For The Warp | older | $14.99 | 434 72% | 13k | $195k (exactly $195,170) | Massive Galaxy Studios |
 | Breach Wanderers | older | $14.99 | 381 87% | 11k | $171k (exactly $171,336) | Baronnerie Games |
 | Dawncaster | The RPG Cardventure | $19.99 | 274 81% | 8.2k | $164k (exactly $164,318) | Wanderlost Interactive | |
 | Hive Blight | · EA | $12.49 | 367 94% | 11k | $138k (exactly $137,515) | OptizOnion |
 | Montabi | $19.99 | 123 95% | 3.7k | $74k (exactly $73,763) | Mankibo | |
 | Isle of Swaps | $14.99 | 129 90% | 3.9k | $58k (exactly $58,011) | Fuzz Force | |
 | Hyperspace Deck Command | $19.99 | 91 95% | 2.7k | $55k (exactly $54,573) | Sleeper Games | |
 | Northwind | · EA | $19.99 | 61 80% | 1.8k | $37k (exactly $36,582) | Barking Kitten Interactive |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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