Do I ship it?

GamesCard BattlerCard Battler + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day Card Battler?

Card Battler + Modern

Only 16 developers shipped a Modern-Day Card Battler in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Cardfight!! Vanguard Dear Days 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2789 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 29 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 29 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Card Battler + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $14k → $153k → $2.7k → $897 → $225 (still earning) → $538 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Card Battler + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $897 (exactly $897)
Top 25% $56k (exactly $55,763)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,324,911)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 32
Announced 29
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Card Battler
effort 3 / 10 · high · card rules plus simple encounter logic
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Card Battler
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 1,021 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $900, 1 in 4 over $55k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Card Battler with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ArcadeFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  2. + Bullet HellFair24 devs · median $1.2k · 22 announced
  3. + GamblingFair64 devs · median $1.0k · 77 announced
  4. + 2D FighterFair10 devs · median $1.0k · 11 announced
  5. + ZombiesFair17 devs · median $839 · 22 announced
  6. + Point & ClickFair25 devs · median $629 · 34 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair35 devs · median $628 · 33 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair43 devs · median $449 · 57 announced
  9. + Party GameFair28 devs · median $449 · 35 announced
  10. + SolitaireLong shot77 devs · median $299 · 79 announced
  11. + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds33 devs · median $31k · 56 announced
  12. + CRPGPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced

All 125 pairs on the Card Battler page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Retirement Simulator · EA older $13.99 3,757 34% 113k $1.6M (exactly $1,576,813) DoubleThink Studio
Cardfight!! Vanguard Dear Days 2 $69.99 631 67% 19k $1.3M (exactly $1,324,911) FURYU Corporation, LANCARSE Ltd.
The Political Machine 2024 older $19.99 255 74% 7.7k $153k (exactly $152,924) Stardock Entertainment
Yomi 2 $19.99 104 92% 3.1k $62k (exactly $62,369) Sirlin Games
Tokyo Valkyries $22.99 87 75% 2.6k $60k (exactly $60,004) qureate
Lunchbreak Tactics $14.99 124 76% 3.7k $56k (exactly $55,763) Borealys Games
Tanto Cuore older $9.99 168 91% 5.0k $50k (exactly $50,350) Japanime Digital, Wedontknow Games
春待ちトロイダル older $6.99 68 94% 2.0k $14k (exactly $14,260) さめさめサメーション
Vox Populi: Brazil 2022 older $4.99 88 94% 2.6k $13k (exactly $13,174) Velsin
Vox Populi: Poland 2023 older $4.99 59 93% 1.8k $8.8k (exactly $8,832) Velsin
Schoolgirl Card Pull Simulator $6.99 34 61% 1.0k $7.1k (exactly $7,130) Violet Soft
ジャリネスハートPro $6.99 14 100% 420 $2.9k (exactly $2,936) savedtekty a.k.a てく
VTBattle-VTubers aren't about the number of subscribers! It's about power! $8.99 10 100% 300 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) WataritamaStudio
My Company $2.99 10 60% 300 $897 (exactly $897) Wuqingying
Mikane's Hand $2.99 6 100% 180 $538 (exactly $538) Miwas Rocket
Liar's Dice $7.49 1 0% 30 $225 (exactly $225) YOAMB

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.