Do I ship it?

GamesCard BattlerCard Battler + Lovecraftian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Lovecraftian Card Battler?

Card Battler + Lovecraftian

Only 14 developers shipped a Lovecraftian Card Battler in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Menace from the Deep, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 34 more are announced, ×4.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $17k, ×35 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $5.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×2646 the market median. Revenue is up 85% on the market; 34 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 34.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 85% on the market, 34 announced, ×4.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Card Battler + Lovecraftian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $14k → $1.3M → $114k → $51k
Outcomes for Card Battler + Lovecraftian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $4.9k (exactly $4,940)
Median $17k (exactly $16,539)
Top 25% $123k (exactly $122,938)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,256,920)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 28
Announced 34
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 85% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Card Battler
effort 3 / 10 · high · card rules plus simple encounter logic
Lovecraftian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Card Battler; all of the top 25% also carry Card Game, Deckbuilding, Roguelike
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 5,713 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $5.0k, median $17k, 1 in 4 over $120k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $5.0k. 6 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 34 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Card Battler with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ArcadeFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  2. + Bullet HellFair24 devs · median $1.2k · 22 announced
  3. + GamblingFair64 devs · median $1.0k · 77 announced
  4. + 2D FighterFair10 devs · median $1.0k · 11 announced
  5. + ZombiesFair17 devs · median $839 · 22 announced
  6. + Point & ClickFair25 devs · median $629 · 34 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair35 devs · median $628 · 33 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair43 devs · median $449 · 57 announced
  9. + Party GameFair28 devs · median $449 · 35 announced
  10. + SolitaireLong shot77 devs · median $299 · 79 announced
  11. + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds33 devs · median $31k · 56 announced
  12. + CRPGPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced

All 125 pairs on the Card Battler page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Depersonalization older $19.99 6,041 92% 181k $3.6M (exactly $3,622,788) MeowNature
Menace from the Deep $16.99 2,466 84% 74k $1.3M (exactly $1,256,920) Flat Lab
Decktamer $15.99 2,069 86% 62k $992k (exactly $992,499) Horizon Edge
Railroads & Catacombs $19.99 358 73% 11k $215k (exactly $214,693) MadRails
Endless Voyage / 无尽航线 older $16.99 407 65% 12k $207k (exactly $207,448) Dalaran Game Studio
Hunter's Moon: A Sovereign Syndicate Adventure $19.99 205 83% 6.2k $123k (exactly $122,938) Crimson Herring Studios
Gods vs Horrors $14.99 254 75% 7.6k $114k (exactly $114,224) Oriol Cosp Games
Liberte older $19.99 152 63% 4.6k $91k (exactly $91,154) Superstatic
Neurodeck : Psychological Deckbuilder older $13.99 169 50% 5.1k $71k (exactly $70,929) TavroxGames
Eternal Destiny older $9.99 225 78% 6.8k $67k (exactly $67,432) Office 5656
Divine's Howl $9.99 169 89% 5.1k $51k (exactly $50,649) Sense13 Studio
Summoner's Gambit $7.99 69 52% 2.1k $17k (exactly $16,539) Billion Studio
Hunt the Pale Gods $14.99 36 94% 1.1k $16k (exactly $16,189) Nick Papageorgiou
Mind Lure $4.99 54 74% 1.6k $8.1k (exactly $8,084) Little Tiger Game
Battle Of The Abyss $4.99 33 93% 990 $4.9k (exactly $4,940) 1029studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.