Do I ship it?

GamesJRPGJRPG + Card Battler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Card Battler JRPG?

JRPG + Card Battler

Of 30 developers who shipped a Card Battler JRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 53 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $20k, ×33 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $780k, ×1255 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 53 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 32.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 53 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + Card Battler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 30
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $206k → $121k → $32k → $39k → $8.6k → $42k (still earning) → $2.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for JRPG + Card Battler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 30
Bottom 30% $3.0k (exactly $2,998)
Median $20k (exactly $20,441)
Top 25% $47k (exactly $46,764)
Top 5% $788k (exactly $788,203)
Developers, 2 yr 30
Released games 94
Announced 53
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Card Battler
effort 3 / 10 · high · card rules plus simple encounter logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG, Card Battler; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, 2D, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 6,375 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.0k, median $20k, 1 in 4 over $46k, 1 in 20 over $780k.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.0k. 7 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 53 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  3. + NinjaFair7 devs · median $19k · 10 announced
  4. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  6. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  9. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  12. + Artificial IntelligenceFair25 devs · median $4.0k · 21 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SUPER DRAGON BALL HEROES WORLD MISSION older $59.99 1,404 82% 42k $2.5M (exactly $2,526,779) Dimps Corporation, SAFARI GAMES Co., Lt… (Dimps Corporation, SAFARI GAMES Co., Ltd.)
Touhou: Lost Branch of Legend · EA older $29.99 2,036 92% 61k $1.8M (exactly $1,831,789) Alioth Studio
NEOVERSE older $19.99 2,882 84% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,728,335) Tinogames Inc.
Rebellion GODSOUL: Awakening · EA $17.99 2,458 85% 74k $1.3M (exactly $1,326,583) U-Secret Studio
Voice of Cards: The Isle Dragon Roars older $29.99 1,277 80% 38k $1.1M (exactly $1,148,917) Square Enix
Mega Man Star Force Legacy Collection $39.99 657 96% 20k $788k (exactly $788,203) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Yohane the Parhelion - NUMAZU in the MIRAGE - older $29.99 685 90% 21k $616k (exactly $616,294) BeXide Inc.
STARDUST: Wish of Witch $24.99 728 81% 22k $546k (exactly $545,782) Kniv Studio Co., Ltd.
Succubus★Connect! older $24.99 637 78% 19k $478k (exactly $477,559) capture1
Baten Kaitos I & II HD Remaster older $49.99 250 78% 7.5k $375k (exactly $374,925) logicalbeat Co., Ltd.
Witch's Apocalyptic Journey $8.99 1,282 84% 38k $346k (exactly $345,755) MeowAlive
Rogue Voltage $15.99 593 92% 18k $284k (exactly $284,462) Horizont Computergrafik
The Girl's Moving Castle $9.99 181 88% 5.4k $54k (exactly $54,246) Destined game Studio
Throne of Monsters 怪物的王座 $12.99 130 92% 3.9k $51k (exactly $50,661) 雏形游戏
Project: AHNO's Ark $12.99 120 92% 3.6k $47k (exactly $46,764) PHOSEPO
Voice of Belldona · EA $11.99 117 72% 3.5k $42k (exactly $42,085) StoryCropStudio
Nao in Heat! ~Kemomimi Girl's Naughty Treatment~ $11.99 109 77% 3.3k $39k (exactly $39,207) Crazy Nirin

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.