Do I ship it?

GamesLogicLogic + Capitalism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Capitalist Logic game?

Logic + Capitalism

Of 64 developers who shipped a Capitalist Logic game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 60 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $810, ×1.7 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $160k, ×340 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 60 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 60 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Logic + Capitalism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 64
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $450 → $7.6k → $1.1k → $2.1k → $25k → $300 (still earning) → $848 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Logic + Capitalism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 64
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $809 (exactly $809)
Top 25% $3.8k (exactly $3,774)
Top 5% $162k (exactly $161,654)
Developers, 2 yr 64
Released games 113
Announced 60
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Logic
effort 2 / 10 · high · deductive rules and grids
Capitalism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Logic; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Economy, Management
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Relaxing, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 3,105 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $810, 1 in 4 over $3.7k, 1 in 20 over $160k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 31 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 60 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Logic with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LovecraftianFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 19 announced
  2. + City BuilderFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + NoirFair42 devs · median $2.7k · 59 announced
  4. + HackingFair60 devs · median $2.5k · 67 announced
  5. + VampiresFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 14 announced
  6. + DragonsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 8 announced
  7. + Escape RoomFair54 devs · median $2.1k · 44 announced
  8. + Bullet TimeFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  9. + Inventory ManagementFair70 devs · median $1.7k · 74 announced
  10. + TransportationFair29 devs · median $1.7k · 30 announced
  11. + Automobile SimFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + CookingFair27 devs · median $1.6k · 26 announced

All 200 pairs on the Logic page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Airport CEO older $24.99 7,752 83% 233k $5.8M (exactly $5,811,674) Apog Labs
City Bus Manager older $29.99 2,405 90% 72k $2.2M (exactly $2,163,778) PeDePe GbR
Worldwide Rush $19.99 559 77% 17k $335k (exactly $335,232) Memel Games
ORDER 13 $8.99 1,224 87% 37k $330k (exactly $330,113) Cybernetic Walrus
Bank Simulator · EA $14.99 367 70% 11k $165k (exactly $165,040) Strong Bow Games
Rise of Industry 2 $34.99 154 55% 4.6k $162k (exactly $161,654) SomaSim
Picross Fairytale - nonogram: Red Riding Hood secret older $14.99 235 73% 7.1k $106k (exactly $105,680) Somer Games
Check Inn $14.99 197 84% 5.9k $89k (exactly $88,591) KishMish Games
Block Factory $9.99 251 77% 7.5k $75k (exactly $75,225) OverPowered Team
Scratch the Ticket $9.99 183 44% 5.5k $55k (exactly $54,845) Shilenok
ShoppingMall: Manager Simulator $14.99 95 45% 2.9k $43k (exactly $42,722) Geekon
Business Heroes: Street Grub $19.99 42 83% 1.3k $25k (exactly $25,187) Visionaries
Business War: ERP Sandbox Simulation $15.99 33 84% 990 $16k (exactly $15,830) 夜与潜伏者

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.