Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based TacticsTurn-Based Tactics + Bullet Hell

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Bullet Hell Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + Bullet Hell

Only 14 developers shipped a Bullet Hell Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Fantasy Maiden Wars - DREAM OF THE STRAY DREAMER -, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $420 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 8 developers shipped in the last year and 25 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 25 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + Bullet Hell
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $300 → $81k → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + Bullet Hell: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $1.6k (exactly $1,618)
Top 5% $611k (exactly $610,925)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 29
Announced 25
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Bullet Hell
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics, Bullet Hell; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Turn-Based Combat, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, Cute, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 8 games average 93% positive over 1,156 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $300, 1 in 4 over $1.6k, 1 in 20 over $610k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 8 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  9. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  12. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Fantasy Maiden Wars - DREAM OF THE STRAY DREAMER - $34.99 582 98% 17k $611k (exactly $610,925) さんぼん堂
Beach Invasion 1944 older $9.99 1,038 84% 31k $311k (exactly $311,089) AIx2 Games
The Last Federation older $19.99 380 72% 11k $228k (exactly $227,886) Arcen Games
Little Witch Survivors $4.99 543 87% 16k $81k (exactly $81,287) 四月二酱
NEXT JUMP: Shmup Tactics older $3.99 78 80% 2.3k $9.3k (exactly $9,337) Post Mortem Pixels
Bloody Rampage City older $4.99 37 70% 1.1k $5.5k (exactly $5,539) Crimson Chaos Studios
Hacker Man older $19.99 8 12% 240 $4.8k (exactly $4,798) GamesBraz
fishTDX older $4.99 22 95% 660 $3.3k (exactly $3,293) progress
Pigments older $5.99 15 100% 450 $2.7k (exactly $2,696) PUNKCAKE Delicieux
NUSNUR $4.99 16 100% 480 $2.4k (exactly $2,395) Team PARAFOX
Rootin' Tootin' Lootin' & Shootin' $8.99 6 100% 180 $1.6k (exactly $1,618) Raspberry Jam
Battle Medal: Super Auto Chess Swarm War $7.99 5 80% 150 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) SOT烈
Odyssey Times - A Quest for Adventure $6.99 2 100% 60 $419 (exactly $419) Icefire Games
The Moon Ate The Sun - A Realtime Turn Based RPG $9.99 1 0% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Omnia
Kick the Boss's Ass $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) FantasyTime
Mutant Slime : Survivor Team $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) BSE Tech
Ender Echo: Eventide Eternity $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) 阴阳喵Art

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.