Do I ship it?

GamesBoard GameBoard Game + War

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a War Board Game?

Board Game + War

Of 51 developers who shipped a War Board Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 74 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $260k, ×416 the market median. Revenue is up 300% on the market; 74 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 300% on the market, 74 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Board Game + War
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 51
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.4k → $1.1k → $600 → $390 → $6.6k → $5.1k → $1.2k (still earning) → $539 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Board Game + War: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 51
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $13,486)
Top 5% $261k (exactly $261,276)
Developers, 2 yr 51
Released games 179
Announced 74
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 300% on the market, supply 140% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Board Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
War
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Board Game; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, Turn-Based Tactics
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 2,554 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $900, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 74 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Board Game with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Party-Based RPGFair24 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  2. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair30 devs · median $6.7k · 33 announced
  3. + JRPGFair13 devs · median $2.5k · 7 announced
  4. + Local Co-OpFair35 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced
  5. + Female ProtagonistFair35 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  6. + HistoricalFair60 devs · median $1.3k · 81 announced
  7. + LGBTQ+Fair8 devs · median $1.2k · 5 announced
  8. + SpaceFair28 devs · median $1.2k · 27 announced
  9. + Alternate HistoryFair20 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  10. + MahjongFair28 devs · median $1.1k · 21 announced
  11. + Party GameFair72 devs · median $899 · 98 announced
  12. + DragonsFair15 devs · median $838 · 15 announced

All 152 pairs on the Board Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ultimate General: Civil War older $29.99 8,331 88% 250k $7.5M (exactly $7,495,401) Game-Labs
Axis & Allies 1942 Online older $19.99 4,810 78% 144k $2.9M (exactly $2,884,557) Beamdog
Root older $14.99 5,049 90% 151k $2.3M (exactly $2,270,535) Dire Wolf
Scythe: Digital Edition older $19.99 3,164 89% 95k $1.9M (exactly $1,897,451) The Knights of Unity
Solium Infernum older $39.99 1,571 88% 47k $1.9M (exactly $1,884,729) League of Geeks
A Game of Thrones: The Board Game - Digital Edition older $19.99 1,705 71% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,022,488) Dire Wolf
Line War older $24.99 1,076 80% 32k $807k (exactly $806,677) Studio Centurion
Second Front older $34.99 613 78% 18k $643k (exactly $643,466) Hexdraw
Headquarters: World War II older $39.99 508 74% 15k $609k (exactly $609,448) Starni Games
Strategic Mind: Blitzkrieg older $39.99 442 84% 13k $530k (exactly $530,267) Starni Games
Burden of Command™ $24.99 628 83% 19k $471k (exactly $470,812) Green Tree Games LLC
HEART of CROWN Online $29.99 412 84% 12k $371k (exactly $370,676) illuCalab, FLIPFLOPs, quziralab.
The Conquest of Go $14.99 581 94% 17k $261k (exactly $261,276) Wolfey Studios
Mr. President $19.99 162 75% 4.9k $97k (exactly $97,151) Exia Labs
Monopoly: Star Wars™ Heroes vs. Villains $29.99 94 39% 2.8k $85k (exactly $84,572) Behaviour Interactive Inc.
No Retreat! The Russian Front $29.99 80 76% 2.4k $72k (exactly $71,976) Cyril Jarnot, Avalon Digital
How 2 Escape: Lost Submarine $12.99 161 83% 4.8k $63k (exactly $62,742) Breakfirst Games
Bonaparte - A Mechanized Revolution $24.99 72 68% 2.2k $54k (exactly $53,978) Studio Imugi
Space Imperia 4X $22.99 70 92% 2.1k $48k (exactly $48,279) Breich Games
Deckline $3.99 294 86% 8.8k $35k (exactly $35,192) Room Games, KREIDPIX

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.