Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day Board Game?

Board Game + Modern

Of 20 developers who shipped a Modern-Day Board Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $330, ×0.7 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180. Revenue is down 65% on the market, with 26 games announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 26 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Board Game + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $8.2k → $1.1k → $1.1k → $179 → $225 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Board Game + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $330 (exactly $330)
Top 25% $1.1k (exactly $1,077)
Top 5% $56k (exactly $55,763)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 66
Announced 26
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 135% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Board Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Board Game; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Card Game, Roguelite
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Stylized, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 177 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $330, 1 in 4 over $1.0k, 1 in 20 over $55k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. All of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 26 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Board Game with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Party-Based RPGFair24 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  2. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair30 devs · median $6.7k · 33 announced
  3. + JRPGFair13 devs · median $2.5k · 7 announced
  4. + Local Co-OpFair35 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced
  5. + Female ProtagonistFair35 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  6. + HistoricalFair60 devs · median $1.3k · 81 announced
  7. + LGBTQ+Fair8 devs · median $1.2k · 5 announced
  8. + SpaceFair28 devs · median $1.2k · 27 announced
  9. + Alternate HistoryFair20 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  10. + MahjongFair28 devs · median $1.1k · 21 announced
  11. + Party GameFair72 devs · median $899 · 98 announced
  12. + DragonsFair15 devs · median $838 · 15 announced

All 152 pairs on the Board Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Carrier Battles 4 Guadalcanal - Pacific War Naval Warfare 2020 · $274k A=B 2022 · $136k Lock 'n Load Tactical Digital: Core Game 2020 · EA · $85k Monopoly Madness 2023 · $85k yahtzee girl 2023 · $66k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Carrier Battles 4 Guadalcanal - Pacific War Naval Warfare older $29.99 305 87% 9.2k $274k (exactly $274,408) Cyril Jarnot
A=B older $4.99 908 94% 27k $136k (exactly $135,928) Artless Games
Lock 'n Load Tactical Digital: Core Game · EA older $4.99 566 82% 17k $85k (exactly $84,730) Lock 'n Load Publishing
Monopoly Madness older $29.99 94 43% 2.8k $85k (exactly $84,572) Engine Software, Ubisoft
yahtzee girl older $2.99 735 89% 22k $66k (exactly $65,930) snappixgames
Lunchbreak Tactics $14.99 124 76% 3.7k $56k (exactly $55,763) Borealys Games
Tanto Cuore older $9.99 168 91% 5.0k $50k (exactly $50,350) Japanime Digital, Wedontknow Games
Body Pay older $7.99 157 75% 4.7k $38k (exactly $37,633) Cheese Burger Studio
RPG Stories · EA older $29.99 36 77% 1.1k $32k (exactly $32,389) Brave Alice Games
Takoyaki Party Survival older $2.99 222 94% 6.7k $20k (exactly $19,913) KIMIDORI SOFT
okey.gg · EA $9.99 16 50% 480 $4.8k (exactly $4,795) yilmaz.games
Grammar Grind $9.99 4 75% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Skylor Beck
Mahjong Expedition $8.99 4 75% 120 $1.1k (exactly $1,079) COSO
Dorpie $3.99 9 100% 270 $1.1k (exactly $1,077) Chosen Interactive
Find The Flaw $4.99 7 71% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) XSGames
6 Ways To 7 $4.99 7 85% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) Axelstems
Take That Hill $19.99 1 100% 30 $600 (exactly $600) Hunted Cow Games, HexWar Games
Billionaire MAX $4.99 4 100% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Bunijia
ロジック麻雀 創龍 $10.99 1 0% 30 $330 (exactly $330) Nippon Ichi Software, Inc., Systemsoft… (Nippon Ichi Software, Inc., Systemsoft beta, Inc.)

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.