Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Board Game?

Board Game + Medieval

Of 95 developers who shipped a Medieval Board Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 133 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $370k, ×780 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 133 games are announced against 60 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 133 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Board Game + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 95
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.6k → $1.3k → $179 → $2.4k → $239 → $899 → $628 (still earning) → $210 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Board Game + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 95
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $5.4k (exactly $5,396)
Top 5% $371k (exactly $370,676)
Developers, 2 yr 95
Released games 275
Announced 133
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Board Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Board Game; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Tabletop, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 7,479 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $600, 1 in 4 over $5.3k, 1 in 20 over $370k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 41 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 133 games are announced against 60 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Board Game with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Party-Based RPGFair24 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  2. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair30 devs · median $6.7k · 33 announced
  3. + JRPGFair13 devs · median $2.5k · 7 announced
  4. + Local Co-OpFair35 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced
  5. + Female ProtagonistFair35 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  6. + HistoricalFair60 devs · median $1.3k · 81 announced
  7. + LGBTQ+Fair8 devs · median $1.2k · 5 announced
  8. + SpaceFair28 devs · median $1.2k · 27 announced
  9. + Alternate HistoryFair20 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  10. + MahjongFair28 devs · median $1.1k · 21 announced
  11. + Party GameFair72 devs · median $899 · 98 announced
  12. + DragonsFair15 devs · median $838 · 15 announced

All 152 pairs on the Board Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Mordheim: City of the Damned 2015 · $4.2M Blood Bowl 3 2023 · $3.5M Demeo 2021 · $2.0M dotAGE 2023 · $1.4M Drop Duchy 2025 · $1.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mordheim: City of the Damned older $19.99 7,056 72% 212k $4.2M (exactly $4,231,483) Rogue Factor
Blood Bowl 3 older $29.99 3,940 51% 118k $3.5M (exactly $3,544,818) Cyanide Studio
Demeo older $39.99 1,703 87% 51k $2.0M (exactly $2,043,089) Resolution Games
dotAGE older $17.59 2,560 94% 77k $1.4M (exactly $1,350,912) Michele Pirovano
Drop Duchy $14.99 2,962 89% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,332,011) Sleepy Mill Studio
A Game of Thrones: The Board Game - Digital Edition older $19.99 1,705 71% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,022,488) Dire Wolf
Frosthaven · EA $39.99 814 72% 24k $977k (exactly $976,556) Snapshot Games Inc.
TerraScape older $14.99 2,068 88% 62k $930k (exactly $929,980) Bitfall Studios
Swords and Sandals Classic Collection older $9.99 2,905 92% 87k $871k (exactly $870,628) Whiskeybarrel Studios
Carcassonne - Tiles & Tactics older $9.99 1,978 83% 59k $593k (exactly $592,807) Artefacts Studio
Let Them Trade $17.99 1,070 84% 32k $577k (exactly $577,479) Spaceflower
Clank! $22.99 542 92% 16k $374k (exactly $373,817) Dire Wolf
HEART of CROWN Online $29.99 412 84% 12k $371k (exactly $370,676) illuCalab, FLIPFLOPs, quziralab.
Dawnfolk $14.99 664 94% 20k $299k (exactly $298,601) Darenn Keller
Talisman: Digital 5th Edition $29.99 227 70% 6.8k $204k (exactly $204,232) Nomad Games
Feed the Scorchpot $14.99 371 87% 11k $167k (exactly $166,839) Moravian
Worlds of Aria $14.99 220 90% 6.6k $99k (exactly $98,934) Ludogram
Master of Piece · EA $14.99 197 86% 5.9k $89k (exactly $88,591) I M GAME, I M fine

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.