Do I ship it?

Games › Board Game › Board Game + Match 3

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Match 3 Board Game?

Board Game + Match 3

Of 36 developers who shipped a Match 3 Board Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $150 in the last 2 years and $180 over 4, against a market of $120 for a 2 / 10 build. 21 developers shipped in the last year and 18 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 40% on the market, 18 announced, ×0.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Board Game + Match 3
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 36
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $719 → $150 → $358 → $899 → $150 → $178 → $599 (still earning) → $90 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Board Game + Match 3: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 36
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $150 (exactly $150)
Top 25% $839 (exactly $839)
Top 5% $4.9k (exactly $4,947)
Developers, 2 yr 36
Released games 215
Announced 18
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $1.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 40% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Board Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Match 3
effort 2 / 10 · high · grid matching rules and cascades

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Board Game, Match 3; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Card Game, Strategy
Price point
$1.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Family Friendly
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $1.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 521 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $150, 1 in 4 over $830, 1 in 20 over $4.9k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. Nearly all of the 32 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Board Game with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Party-Based RPGFair24 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  2. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair30 devs · median $6.7k · 33 announced
  3. + JRPGFair13 devs · median $2.5k · 7 announced
  4. + Local Co-OpFair35 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced
  5. + Female ProtagonistFair35 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  6. + HistoricalFair60 devs · median $1.3k · 81 announced
  7. + LGBTQ+Fair8 devs · median $1.2k · 5 announced
  8. + SpaceFair28 devs · median $1.2k · 27 announced
  9. + Alternate HistoryFair20 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  10. + MahjongFair28 devs · median $1.1k · 21 announced
  11. + Party GameFair72 devs · median $899 · 98 announced
  12. + DragonsFair15 devs · median $838 · 15 announced

All 152 pairs on the Board Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Might & Magic: Clash of Heroes - Definitive Edition 2023 · $234k Tiny Civilization 2023 · $127k Sagrada 2020 · $95k Lucky Hunter 2024 · $74k Faerie Solitaire Harvest 2019 · $64k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Might & Magic: Clash of Heroes - Definitive Edition older $17.99 434 80% 13k $234k (exactly $234,230) Dotemu, Capybara Games
Tiny Civilization older $1.99 2,134 92% 64k $127k (exactly $127,400) 喜人一个
Sagrada older $9.99 317 94% 9.5k $95k (exactly $95,005) Dire Wolf
Lucky Hunter $5.99 413 89% 12k $74k (exactly $74,216) 159 Studio
Faerie Solitaire Harvest older $14.99 143 79% 4.3k $64k (exactly $64,307) Subsoap
Last Resort Island older $8.99 173 87% 5.2k $47k (exactly $46,658) rokaplay
Faerie Solitaire Dire · EA older $19.99 41 68% 1.2k $25k (exactly $24,588) Subsoap
Zombie Solitaire 2 Chapter 2 older $8.99 57 85% 1.7k $15k (exactly $15,373) rokaplay
Zombie Solitaire 2 Chapter 3 older $8.99 47 80% 1.4k $13k (exactly $12,676) rokaplay
Beasties - Monster Trainer Puzzle RPG older $8.99 45 46% 1.4k $12k (exactly $12,136) rokaplay
Seven Seas Jewels Collector's Edition $14.99 11 100% 330 $4.9k (exactly $4,947) Anawiki Games
Match! The 12 CZ Wars $5.99 27 100% 810 $4.9k (exactly $4,852) CorvusCorax Studio
Dialoop -Roguelite Puzzle- $7.99 16 81% 480 $3.8k (exactly $3,835) Byking Inc.
100 in 1 Game Collection $29.99 4 75% 120 $3.6k (exactly $3,599) Digital Bards
Avalon Jewels $9.99 12 75% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Anawiki Games
Lines 98 $4.99 12 100% 360 $1.8k (exactly $1,796) Popoko VM Games
Puppy Link - Tile Connect $2.99 17 88% 510 $1.5k (exactly $1,525) ZT-Studio
Jixo: The Season of Joy Collector's Edition $9.99 5 80% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) MixoGames Ltd.
BeatHero $6.99 4 100% 120 $839 (exactly $839) Rainboar Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.