Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Incremental Board Game?

Board Game + Incremental

Of 61 developers who shipped an Incremental Board Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 44 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $150 in the last 2 years and $180 over 4, against a market of $120 for a 2 / 10 build. 40 developers shipped in the last year and 44 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 170% on the market, 44 announced, ×1.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Board Game + Incremental
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 61
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $416 → $298 → $59 → $119 → $150 → $30 → $299 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Board Game + Incremental: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 61
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $150 (exactly $150)
Top 25% $748 (exactly $748)
Top 5% $3.2k (exactly $3,229)
Developers, 2 yr 61
Released games 230
Announced 44
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $2.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 170% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Board Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Board Game, Incremental; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Puzzle, Point & Click
Price point
$2.99 typical · top 25% priced $4.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Relaxing, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $4.99 or above; the middle game at $2.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 779 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $150, 1 in 4 over $740, 1 in 20 over $3.2k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. Nearly all of the 31 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 44 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Board Game with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Party-Based RPGFair24 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  2. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair30 devs · median $6.7k · 33 announced
  3. + JRPGFair13 devs · median $2.5k · 7 announced
  4. + Local Co-OpFair35 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced
  5. + Female ProtagonistFair35 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  6. + HistoricalFair60 devs · median $1.3k · 81 announced
  7. + LGBTQ+Fair8 devs · median $1.2k · 5 announced
  8. + SpaceFair28 devs · median $1.2k · 27 announced
  9. + Alternate HistoryFair20 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  10. + MahjongFair28 devs · median $1.1k · 21 announced
  11. + Party GameFair72 devs · median $899 · 98 announced
  12. + DragonsFair15 devs · median $838 · 15 announced

All 152 pairs on the Board Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Adorables 2016 · $452k Lucky Hunter 2024 · $74k Egyptian Senet 2015 · $60k 3D Math - Ultra 2020 · $33k Chosen Garden 2026 · $27k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Adorables older $29.99 502 80% 15k $452k (exactly $451,649) White Rabbit
Lucky Hunter $5.99 413 89% 12k $74k (exactly $74,216) 159 Studio
Egyptian Senet older $9.99 200 81% 6.0k $60k (exactly $59,940) Ezzat Studios
3D Math - Ultra older $4.99 218 92% 6.5k $33k (exactly $32,635) Big Mind Games 9000
Chosen Garden $9.99 90 93% 2.7k $27k (exactly $26,973) Winter Cabin Games
CandySweet older $19.99 14 78% 420 $8.4k (exactly $8,396) Gamesforgames
Oberty older $2.99 75 94% 2.3k $6.7k (exactly $6,728) Dmytro Denys
Ragnar's Chinese Memory Game older $5.99 33 100% 990 $5.9k (exactly $5,930) Ragnar Brynjúlfsson
Fluffy Cubed older $1.99 97 93% 2.9k $5.8k (exactly $5,791) Naoka Games
Passage 4 older $8.99 18 83% 540 $4.9k (exactly $4,855) netmin games
Mate'Morphosis $2.99 49 95% 1.5k $4.4k (exactly $4,395) WiseMonkeES, Bruder Studio
Cozy Cats Fit $2.99 36 100% 1.1k $3.2k (exactly $3,229) CozyPuzzleGames
Buttons Up! $1.99 53 84% 1.6k $3.2k (exactly $3,164) Jestercraft
Minesweeper $3.99 26 84% 780 $3.1k (exactly $3,112) Popoko VM Games
The Board is Yours $2.50 38 97% 1.1k $2.9k (exactly $2,850) Draelent
Ocean Cleaner Idle $2.99 28 57% 840 $2.5k (exactly $2,512) Watt a Day Games
Teach Kids Games $9.99 8 0% 240 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) 2kblater
Coloring Cats: Sports With Friends $1.99 38 97% 1.1k $2.3k (exactly $2,269) Mens Sana Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.