Do I ship it?

GamesBasketballBasketball + Platformer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Platformer Basketball game?

Basketball + Platformer

Only 9 developers shipped a Platformer Basketball game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Dunkadillo, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 5 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $900 against a market of $1.5k. 5 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 5 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Basketball + Platformer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Basketball + Platformer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $2.9k (exactly $2,936)
Top 5% $5.7k (exactly $5,694)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 25
Announced 5
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 50% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Basketball
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Basketball, Platformer
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 531 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $900, 1 in 4 over $2.9k, 1 in 20 over $5.6k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. All of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 5 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Basketball with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + PvPFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  2. + SimulationFair34 devs · median $1.3k · 31 announced
  3. + PhysicsLong shot19 devs · median $537 · 25 announced
  4. + Character CustomizationPoor odds12 devs · median $6.0k · 23 announced
  5. + Local MultiplayerPoor odds17 devs · median $3.9k · 7 announced
  6. + ManagementPoor odds16 devs · median $3.6k · 16 announced
  7. + StrategyPoor odds20 devs · median $1.3k · 20 announced
  8. + SportsPoor odds62 devs · median $1.3k · 63 announced
  9. + ActionPoor odds23 devs · median $1.2k · 32 announced
  10. + ArcadePoor odds31 devs · median $719 · 32 announced
  11. + AdventureDead8 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  12. + Immersive SimDead10 devs · median $3.6k · 13 announced

All 12 pairs on the Basketball page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Regular Human Basketball older $4.99 222 93% 6.7k $33k (exactly $33,233) Powerhoof
Pile Up! Box by Box older $14.99 63 92% 1.9k $28k (exactly $28,331) Seed by Seed
Grapple Hoops older $11.99 75 73% 2.3k $27k (exactly $26,978) Andreas Georgiou
BasketBelle older $4.99 84 80% 2.5k $13k (exactly $12,575) Studio Bean
Dunkadillo $9.99 19 100% 570 $5.7k (exactly $5,694) Thomas K. Young
DepowerBall older $17.99 10 100% 300 $5.4k (exactly $5,397) Mega Power Games
Layup Legends™ $9.99 17 100% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) Luke Stanback
The Jump Guys older $5.99 17 58% 510 $3.1k (exactly $3,055) Plitka Games
Dunk Dunk $6.99 14 92% 420 $2.9k (exactly $2,936) Badgerhammer Limited
Mike the Hooper $3.99 10 100% 300 $1.2k (exactly $1,197) Steel Arrow
Shoot Up Basketball Pro $9.99 3 100% 90 $899 (exactly $899) mindoverloadgames
Average Human Ball Game $4.99 5 100% 150 $748 (exactly $748) Ultra Hypa Studios
Mini Games Retro 90s $5.99 4 100% 120 $719 (exactly $719) Ewerton José Wantroba
BoxBox $4.50 1 100% 30 $135 (exactly $135) Josip Horvat HardHatDev
iKun Go Go Go $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) 路过的萌佬

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.