Do I ship it?

GamesBasketballBasketball + Local Multiplayer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Local Multiplayer Basketball game?

Basketball + Local Multiplayer

Only 17 developers shipped a Local Multiplayer Basketball game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, NBA 2K26, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.9k, ×2.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $53M, ×35954 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 7 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 7 announced, ×0.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Basketball + Local Multiplayer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.4k → $51k → $8.5k → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Basketball + Local Multiplayer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,349)
Median $3.9k (exactly $3,896)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $17,845)
Top 5% $54M (exactly $53,859,405)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 39
Announced 7
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Basketball
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Local Multiplayer
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Basketball, Local Multiplayer; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Sports, PvP, Simulation
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $69.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $69.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 66% positive over 28,409 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.4k, median $3.9k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $53M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 7 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Basketball with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + PvPFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  2. + SimulationFair34 devs · median $1.3k · 31 announced
  3. + PhysicsLong shot19 devs · median $537 · 25 announced
  4. + Character CustomizationPoor odds12 devs · median $6.0k · 23 announced
  5. + ManagementPoor odds16 devs · median $3.6k · 16 announced
  6. + StrategyPoor odds20 devs · median $1.3k · 20 announced
  7. + SportsPoor odds62 devs · median $1.3k · 63 announced
  8. + ActionPoor odds23 devs · median $1.2k · 32 announced
  9. + ArcadePoor odds31 devs · median $719 · 32 announced
  10. + AdventureDead8 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  11. + Immersive SimDead10 devs · median $3.6k · 13 announced
  12. + PlatformerDead9 devs · median $899 · 5 announced

All 12 pairs on the Basketball page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
NBA 2K25 older $69.99 30,969 60% 929k $65M (exactly $65,025,609) Visual Concepts
NBA 2K26 $69.99 25,651 66% 770k $54M (exactly $53,859,405) Visual Concepts
FlatOut 2 older $9.99 19,466 95% 584k $5.8M (exactly $5,833,960) Bugbear Entertainment, ZOOM Platform Me… (Bugbear Entertainment, ZOOM Platform Media, Jordan Freeman Group)
NBA 2K27 $69.99 1,698 53% 51k $3.6M (exactly $3,565,291) Visual Concepts
Hoop Land · EA $14.99 702 96% 21k $316k (exactly $315,689) Koality Game
Clutchtime™: Basketball Deckbuilder $19.99 180 77% 5.4k $108k (exactly $107,946) Bigosaur
Basketball Classics older $9.99 176 92% 5.3k $53k (exactly $52,747) Namo Gamo
Looney Tunes: Wacky World of Sports $49.99 34 79% 1.0k $51k (exactly $50,990) Bamtang Games
RoboDunk older $14.99 90 95% 2.7k $40k (exactly $40,473) Jollypunch Games
Regular Human Basketball older $4.99 222 93% 6.7k $33k (exactly $33,233) Powerhoof
Lacrosse 26 $34.99 17 88% 510 $18k (exactly $17,845) Crosse Studios
Full Court Heroes · EA $15.99 26 38% 780 $12k (exactly $12,472) Tireswing Games
Hoop Fighters: Party Basketball · EA $3.99 71 88% 2.1k $8.5k (exactly $8,499) Team K6
Layup Legends™ $9.99 17 100% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) Luke Stanback
The Dunkers $9.99 13 92% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) UO 5 rusa

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.