Do I ship it?

Games › Basketball › Basketball + Action

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Action Basketball game?

Basketball + Action

Of 23 developers who shipped an Action Basketball game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×0.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $160k, ×110 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 32 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 32 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Basketball + Action
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.7k → $657 → $2.7k → $2.9k → $1.2k → $450 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Basketball + Action: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $5.7k (exactly $5,694)
Top 5% $165k (exactly $164,803)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 73
Announced 32
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Basketball
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Action
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Basketball, Action; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Arcade, Sports, Co-op
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Colorful, Comedy
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 1,572 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $5.6k, 1 in 20 over $160k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 9 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 32 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Basketball with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + PvPFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  2. + SimulationFair34 devs · median $1.3k · 31 announced
  3. + PhysicsLong shot19 devs · median $537 · 25 announced
  4. + Character CustomizationPoor odds12 devs · median $6.0k · 23 announced
  5. + Local MultiplayerPoor odds17 devs · median $3.9k · 7 announced
  6. + ManagementPoor odds16 devs · median $3.6k · 16 announced
  7. + StrategyPoor odds20 devs · median $1.3k · 20 announced
  8. + SportsPoor odds62 devs · median $1.3k · 63 announced
  9. + ArcadePoor odds31 devs · median $719 · 32 announced
  10. + AdventureDead8 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  11. + Immersive SimDead10 devs · median $3.6k · 13 announced
  12. + PlatformerDead9 devs · median $899 · 5 announced

All 12 pairs on the Basketball page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

FlatOut 2 2006 · $5.8M Umamusume: Pretty Derby - Party Dash 2024 · $1.9M NBA THE RUN 2026 · $810k All-In-One Sports VR 2023 · $420k New Retro Arcade: Neon 2016 · $347k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
FlatOut 2 older $9.99 19,466 95% 584k $5.8M (exactly $5,833,960) Bugbear Entertainment, ZOOM Platform Me… (Bugbear Entertainment, ZOOM Platform Media, Jordan Freeman Group)
Umamusume: Pretty Derby - Party Dash older $44.99 1,429 75% 43k $1.9M (exactly $1,928,721) Cygames, Inc., Arc System Works
NBA THE RUN $29.99 900 68% 27k $810k (exactly $809,730) Play by Play Studios
All-In-One Sports VR older $19.99 700 84% 21k $420k (exactly $419,790) Appnori Inc.
New Retro Arcade: Neon older $19.99 579 78% 17k $347k (exactly $347,226) Digital Cybercherries
Double Dragon Revive $34.99 157 63% 4.7k $165k (exactly $164,803) YUKE’S
KunKunNight older $1.99 1,440 97% 43k $86k (exactly $85,968) EMSRoy
Salamander County Public Television older $9.99 233 96% 7.0k $70k (exactly $69,830) Tinzone Games
VR SUPER SPORTS older $12.99 115 56% 3.5k $45k (exactly $44,816) SAT-BOX
KUNKUN Defender 2 $4.99 294 94% 8.8k $44k (exactly $44,012) Seal
Third Person Basketball Court · EA $6.99 67 86% 2.0k $14k (exactly $14,050) kuroki-gaming
Hoop Fighters: Party Basketball · EA $3.99 71 88% 2.1k $8.5k (exactly $8,499) Team K6
Dunkadillo $9.99 19 100% 570 $5.7k (exactly $5,694) Thomas K. Young
Layup Legends™ $9.99 17 100% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) Luke Stanback
Dunk Dunk $6.99 14 92% 420 $2.9k (exactly $2,936) Badgerhammer Limited
Sokker $2.99 29 86% 870 $2.6k (exactly $2,601) Sokpop Collective
Accolade Sports Collection (QUByte Classics) $19.99 4 75% 120 $2.4k (exactly $2,399) QUByte Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.