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Should I ship a Basketball Immersive Sim?
Immersive Sim + Basketball
Only 10 developers shipped a Basketball Immersive Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, NBA 2K26, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: dead, for a 8 / 10 build.
Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $3.6k against a market of $1.5k. 13 games are announced.
| Bottom 30% | $330 (exactly $330) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.6k (exactly $3,596) |
| Top 25% | $29k (exactly $28,771) |
| Top 5% | $54M (exactly $53,859,405) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 10 |
| Released games | 27 |
| Announced | 13 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $10.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1465% on the market, supply 50% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Immersive Sim
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Basketball
- effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Immersive Sim, Basketball; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Management, Simulation, Sports
- Price point
- $10.99 typical · top 25% priced $69.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $69.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.
The top 10 games average 65% positive over 27,779 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $330. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 13 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Immersive Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Trading Card GameStrong odds
- + MinigamesStrong odds
- + WesternStrong odds
- + BoxingStrong odds
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair
- + Dating SimFair
- + RomanceFair
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + Visual NovelFair
- + Split ScreenFair
Comparable games
NBA 2K25 2024 · $65M 
NBA 2K26 2025 · $54M 
NBA 2K27 2026 · $3.6M 
Pro Basketball Manager 2025 2024 · $127k 
Pro Basketball Manager 2026 2025 · $109k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | NBA 2K25 | older | $69.99 | 30,969 60% | 929k | $65M (exactly $65,025,609) | Visual Concepts |
| | NBA 2K26 | $69.99 | 25,651 66% | 770k | $54M (exactly $53,859,405) | Visual Concepts | |
| | NBA 2K27 | $69.99 | 1,698 53% | 51k | $3.6M (exactly $3,565,291) | Visual Concepts | |
| | Pro Basketball Manager 2025 | $24.99 | 169 68% | 5.1k | $127k (exactly $126,699) | Umix Studios | |
| | Pro Basketball Manager 2026 | $29.99 | 121 69% | 3.6k | $109k (exactly $108,864) | Umix Studios | |
 | International Basketball Manager 23 | older | $14.99 | 188 85% | 5.6k | $85k (exactly $84,544) | UPLAY Basketball |
 | International Basketball Manager 22 | older | $9.99 | 218 86% | 6.5k | $65k (exactly $65,335) | UPLAY Basketball |
 | SEX Sport College 💦🏅 | $9.99 | 96 86% | 2.9k | $29k (exactly $28,771) | Play and Cum 💦 | |
 | Pickup Basketball VR | · EA older | $9.99 | 70 78% | 2.1k | $21k (exactly $20,979) | Revog Games |
 | Full Court Heroes | · EA | $15.99 | 26 38% | 780 | $12k (exactly $12,472) | Tireswing Games |
 | Coastal Summit Sports: College Athletics 27 | $9.99 | 12 25% | 360 | $3.6k (exactly $3,596) | Coastal Summit Sports | |
 | Basketball Simulator | · EA | $6.99 | 2 50% | 60 | $419 (exactly $419) | Hard Shark Games |
 | Hoop Empire | $10.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $330 (exactly $330) | Scotsmore Studios | |
 | Public Toilet Simulator | $0.99 | 3 33% | 90 | $89 (exactly $89) | OneiGames |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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