Do I ship it?

GamesJRPGJRPG + Base Building

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Base Building JRPG?

JRPG + Base Building

Only 10 developers shipped a Base Building JRPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, One Lonely Outpost, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $41k, ×66 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $11k; 1 in 20 cleared $320k, ×516 the market median. Revenue is up 620% on the market; 22 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 65.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 620% on the market, 22 announced, ×4.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + Base Building
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $89k → $10k → $128k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for JRPG + Base Building: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $10k (exactly $10,294)
Median $41k (exactly $41,359)
Top 25% $128k (exactly $128,377)
Top 5% $324k (exactly $323,838)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 29
Announced 22
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 620% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG, Base Building
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 2,250 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $11k, median $41k, 1 in 4 over $120k, 1 in 20 over $320k.

3 in 10 developers made under $11k. 6 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 22 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  3. + NinjaFair7 devs · median $19k · 10 announced
  4. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  6. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  9. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  12. + Artificial IntelligenceFair25 devs · median $4.0k · 21 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Yog-Sothoth’s Yard older $10.99 10,207 93% 306k $3.4M (exactly $3,365,248) Bone Nail
Actraiser Renaissance older $29.99 708 74% 21k $637k (exactly $636,988) Square Enix, Sonic Powered
That Time I Got Reincarnated as a Slime ISEKAI Chronicles older $49.99 294 52% 8.8k $441k (exactly $440,912) ZOC Co.,Ltd.
One Lonely Outpost $19.99 540 58% 16k $324k (exactly $323,838) indie.io
MeteoriteFall $12.99 651 78% 20k $254k (exactly $253,695) ST studio
鸿源战纪 - Tales of Hongyuan older $12.99 442 78% 13k $172k (exactly $172,247) Hongyuan Game
Time Break Chronicles · EA older $14.99 298 88% 8.9k $134k (exactly $134,011) Warrior General Games, LLC
Immoral-Bathhouse $8.99 476 80% 14k $128k (exactly $128,377) 奶油貓工作室, バター貓スタジオ
铁道物语:陆王(Railway Saga:Land King) · EA older $9.99 394 78% 12k $118k (exactly $118,082) 風林火山工作室, 東木酋長
Syn-Chorus 01: The New Life · EA $10.99 269 83% 8.1k $89k (exactly $88,689) PrisMaze棱镜迷阵
Lords of Ravage $9.99 138 66% 4.1k $41k (exactly $41,359) Synthetic Domain
Monster Alchemy · EA $18.99 56 91% 1.7k $32k (exactly $31,903) Team Metacarpo
尸来运转-Lucky Zombie Survival $3.99 86 86% 2.6k $10k (exactly $10,294) Kwing works
Endzone Girls $7.99 11 90% 330 $2.6k (exactly $2,637) Aozora
Demon Princess Retreat $3.99 21 85% 630 $2.5k (exactly $2,514) OneShotStudio, SamAFEI
The Farming Frontier $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Cuneyt Aliustaoglu

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.