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Should I ship a Base Building JRPG?
JRPG + Base Building
Only 10 developers shipped a Base Building JRPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, One Lonely Outpost, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $41k, ×66 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $11k; 1 in 20 cleared $320k, ×516 the market median. Revenue is up 620% on the market; 22 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $10k (exactly $10,294) |
|---|---|
| Median | $41k (exactly $41,359) |
| Top 25% | $128k (exactly $128,377) |
| Top 5% | $324k (exactly $323,838) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 10 |
| Released games | 29 |
| Announced | 22 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 620% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- JRPG
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Base Building
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- JRPG, Base Building
- Price point
- $9.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 10 games average 74% positive over 2,250 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $11k. 6 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 22 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
JRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Mystery DungeonStrong odds
- + NinjaFair
- + RomanceFair
- + Visual NovelFair
- + ManagementFair
- + Souls-likeFair
- + Point & ClickFair
- + LootFair
- + RoguelikeFair
- + 2D PlatformerFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Yog-Sothoth’s Yard | older | $10.99 | 10,207 93% | 306k | $3.4M (exactly $3,365,248) | Bone Nail |
| | Actraiser Renaissance | older | $29.99 | 708 74% | 21k | $637k (exactly $636,988) | Square Enix, Sonic Powered |
| | That Time I Got Reincarnated as a Slime ISEKAI Chronicles | older | $49.99 | 294 52% | 8.8k | $441k (exactly $440,912) | ZOC Co.,Ltd. |
| | One Lonely Outpost | $19.99 | 540 58% | 16k | $324k (exactly $323,838) | indie.io | |
| | MeteoriteFall | $12.99 | 651 78% | 20k | $254k (exactly $253,695) | ST studio | |
| | 鸿源战纪 - Tales of Hongyuan | older | $12.99 | 442 78% | 13k | $172k (exactly $172,247) | Hongyuan Game |
| | Time Break Chronicles | · EA older | $14.99 | 298 88% | 8.9k | $134k (exactly $134,011) | Warrior General Games, LLC |
| | Immoral-Bathhouse | $8.99 | 476 80% | 14k | $128k (exactly $128,377) | 奶油貓工作室, バター貓スタジオ | |
| | 铁道物语:陆王(Railway Saga:Land King) | · EA older | $9.99 | 394 78% | 12k | $118k (exactly $118,082) | 風林火山工作室, 東木酋長 |
| | Syn-Chorus 01: The New Life | · EA | $10.99 | 269 83% | 8.1k | $89k (exactly $88,689) | PrisMaze棱镜迷阵 |
| | Lords of Ravage | $9.99 | 138 66% | 4.1k | $41k (exactly $41,359) | Synthetic Domain | |
| | Monster Alchemy | · EA | $18.99 | 56 91% | 1.7k | $32k (exactly $31,903) | Team Metacarpo |
| | 尸来运转-Lucky Zombie Survival | $3.99 | 86 86% | 2.6k | $10k (exactly $10,294) | Kwing works | |
| | Endzone Girls | $7.99 | 11 90% | 330 | $2.6k (exactly $2,637) | Aozora | |
| | Demon Princess Retreat | $3.99 | 21 85% | 630 | $2.5k (exactly $2,514) | OneShotStudio, SamAFEI | |
| | The Farming Frontier | $9.99 | 2 100% | 60 | $599 (exactly $599) | Cuneyt Aliustaoglu |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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