Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Base Building

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Base Building Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Base Building

Of 168 developers who shipped a Base Building Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 327 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $21k, ×14 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $5.1M, ×3455 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 327 games are announced against 100 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 13.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 327 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Base Building
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 168
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $10k → $9.7k → $72k → $118k → $41k → $10k → $19k (still earning) → $13k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Base Building: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 168
Bottom 30% $2.1k (exactly $2,098)
Median $21k (exactly $20,686)
Top 25% $177k (exactly $177,049)
Top 5% $5.2M (exactly $5,175,216)
Developers, 2 yr 168
Released games 361
Announced 327
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim, Base Building; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Building, Management
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 165,294 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.1k, median $21k, 1 in 4 over $170k, 1 in 20 over $5.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.1k. 5 in 10 of the 83 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 327 games are announced against 100 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sons Of The Forest older $29.99 284,572 88% 8.5M $256M (exactly $256,029,428) Endnight Games Ltd
Squad older $39.99 180,505 82% 5.4M $217M (exactly $216,551,848) Offworld
Kenshi older $29.99 98,451 95% 3.0M $89M (exactly $88,576,365) Lo-Fi Games
House Flipper older $24.99 92,333 93% 2.8M $69M (exactly $69,222,050) Empyrean
The Planet Crafter older $23.99 68,855 96% 2.1M $50M (exactly $49,554,944) Miju Games
Medieval Dynasty older $34.99 43,074 90% 1.3M $45M (exactly $45,214,778) Render Cube
Abiotic Factor $34.99 42,075 95% 1.3M $44M (exactly $44,166,128) Deep Field Games
Stormworks: Build and Rescue older $24.99 54,649 90% 1.6M $41M (exactly $40,970,355) Geometa
Farthest Frontier $34.99 24,444 86% 733k $26M (exactly $25,658,867) Crate Entertainment
House Flipper 2 older $39.99 16,535 87% 496k $20M (exactly $19,837,040) Frozen District
RoadCraft $39.99 13,527 74% 406k $16M (exactly $16,228,342) Saber Interactive
The Last Caretaker · EA $34.99 13,178 86% 395k $14M (exactly $13,832,947) Channel37 Ltd
MISERY $12.99 20,015 85% 600k $7.8M (exactly $7,799,846) Platypus Entertainment
StarRupture · EA $19.99 12,333 80% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,396,100) Creepy Jar
Quarantine Zone: The Last Check $19.99 11,827 81% 355k $7.1M (exactly $7,092,652) Brigada Games
VEIN · EA $19.99 11,539 87% 346k $6.9M (exactly $6,919,938) Ramjet Studios
Waterpark Simulator $12.99 13,280 96% 398k $5.2M (exactly $5,175,216) CayPlay
Techtonica $29.99 3,076 64% 92k $2.8M (exactly $2,767,477) Fire Hose Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.