Do I ship it?

GamesCRPGCRPG + Base Building

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Base Building CRPG?

CRPG + Base Building

Only 18 developers shipped a Base Building CRPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Blackthorn Arena: Reforged, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced, ×5.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.6k, ×6.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $660k, ×441 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 37 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 37 announced, ×5.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
CRPG + Base Building
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $68k → $120k → $113k → $959 → $20k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for CRPG + Base Building: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $898 (exactly $898)
Median $9.6k (exactly $9,576)
Top 25% $114k (exactly $113,774)
Top 5% $661k (exactly $661,235)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 53
Announced 37
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

CRPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
CRPG, Base Building; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy RPG, Character Customization
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Isometric, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 2,543 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $9.6k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $660k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 6 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 37 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

CRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $26k · 14 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair84 devs · median $2.4k · 95 announced
  3. + TabletopFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  4. + Traditional RoguelikeFair12 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair62 devs · median $1.2k · 76 announced
  6. + IncrementalLong shot32 devs · median $449 · 27 announced
  7. + FMVPoor odds16 devs · median $58k · 14 announced
  8. + Card BattlerPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced
  9. + Grid-Based MovementPoor odds26 devs · median $23k · 46 announced
  10. + SpacePoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  12. + Souls-likePoor odds12 devs · median $20k · 24 announced

All 123 pairs on the CRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
King Arthur: Knight's Tale older $44.99 6,722 83% 202k $9.1M (exactly $9,072,683) NeocoreGames
SpellForce 3 Reforced older $39.99 5,784 76% 174k $6.9M (exactly $6,939,065) Grimlore Games
Tainted Grail: Conquest older $19.99 7,589 90% 228k $4.6M (exactly $4,551,123) Questline
Dungeon Alchemist · EA older $44.99 2,666 94% 80k $3.6M (exactly $3,598,300) Briganti
Blackthorn Arena: Reforged $24.99 882 66% 26k $661k (exactly $661,235) PersonaeGame Studio
Zoria: Age of Shattering older $24.99 545 77% 16k $409k (exactly $408,586) Tiny Trinket Games
Parking Tycoon: Business Simulator older $12.99 879 64% 26k $343k (exactly $342,546) Geekon
Wanted Raccoon · EA older $16.99 660 72% 20k $336k (exactly $336,402) MAD Sprouts
Sector Unknown $24.99 373 80% 11k $280k (exactly $279,638) Creative Storm Entertainment
Escape The Mad Empire · EA $17.99 406 88% 12k $219k (exactly $219,118) XperimentalZ Games
A Hero's Rest: An RPG Town Simulator $24.99 160 67% 4.8k $120k (exactly $119,952) Vanargand Games
Border Town $14.99 253 77% 7.6k $114k (exactly $113,774) GoHoGames
Latex & Tentacles $10.99 343 67% 10k $113k (exactly $113,087) ZXC, GODNASK
Sea Walker Saga · EA $9.99 66 93% 2.0k $20k (exactly $19,780) Antelus Games
Tales from The Dancing Moon $17.99 34 88% 1.0k $18k (exactly $18,350) DjMonkey
Holonoptic $19.95 16 93% 480 $9.6k (exactly $9,576) Glazial
Alone: Shattered Tribes $10.99 10 90% 300 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Super Llama Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.