Do I ship it?

Games › Visual Novel › Visual Novel + Assassins

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Assassin Visual Novel?

Visual Novel + Assassins

Only 17 developers shipped an Assassin Visual Novel in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Evil School, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.8k, ×3.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $250k, ×169 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 24 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 24 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Visual Novel + Assassins
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $2.7k → $6.3k → $2.7k (still earning) → $97k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Visual Novel + Assassins: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,349)
Median $5.8k (exactly $5,753)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,024)
Top 5% $254k (exactly $253,603)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 55
Announced 24
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Visual Novel
effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
Assassins
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Visual Novel; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Multiple Endings, Choices Matter
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Dialogue Heavy, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 1,535 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.4k, median $5.8k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $250k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. All of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Visual Novel with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds166 devs · median $54k · 146 announced
  2. + City BuilderStrong odds10 devs · median $19k · 8 announced
  3. + MusicStrong odds27 devs · median $18k · 24 announced
  4. + TrainsStrong odds12 devs · median $8.0k · 5 announced
  5. + Souls-likeFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  6. + MinigamesFair20 devs · median $22k · 19 announced
  7. + RhythmFair38 devs · median $18k · 52 announced
  8. + JRPGFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  9. + Immersive SimFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  10. + SwordplayFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  11. + GamblingFair16 devs · median $5.7k · 12 announced
  12. + DiplomacyFair16 devs · median $5.4k · 19 announced

All 188 pairs on the Visual Novel page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Evil School 2026 · $254k NO, THANK YOU!!! 2018 · $216k マーダーミステリーパラドクス このひと夏の十五年 2023 · $149k Phantom PHANTOM OF INFERNO NITRO ARCHIVE 2026 · $97k Grisaia Phantom Trigger Vol.8 2022 · $91k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Evil School $7.99 1,058 92% 32k $254k (exactly $253,603) CineGame Interactive
NO, THANK YOU!!! older $39.99 180 87% 5.4k $216k (exactly $215,946) parade
マーダーミステリーパラドクス このひと夏の十五年 older $19.99 249 85% 7.5k $149k (exactly $149,325) 213℉
Phantom PHANTOM OF INFERNO NITRO ARCHIVE $29.99 108 94% 3.2k $97k (exactly $97,168) NITRO PLUS, NITRO ORIGIN
Grisaia Phantom Trigger Vol.8 older $29.99 101 92% 3.0k $91k (exactly $90,870) Frontwing
Grisaia Phantom Trigger Vol.7 older $24.99 119 88% 3.6k $89k (exactly $89,214) Frontwing
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Empire City $24.99 105 76% 3.2k $79k (exactly $78,718) Cortopia Studios
Grisaia Phantom Trigger Vol.3 older $14.99 156 93% 4.7k $70k (exactly $70,153) Frontwing
Grisaia Phantom Trigger Vol.5 older $14.99 131 96% 3.9k $59k (exactly $58,911) Frontwing
Grisaia Phantom Trigger Vol.4 older $14.99 129 97% 3.9k $58k (exactly $58,011) Frontwing
Beyond R: Rule Ripper $24.99 32 90% 960 $24k (exactly $23,990) Tohriv, GJ Staff
Grizzly Man $8.99 52 90% 1.6k $14k (exactly $14,024) LCB Game Studio
烧尾宴 $8.99 52 75% 1.6k $14k (exactly $14,024) 有点正经
Rivers of Astrum: Daughter of Darkness · EA $8.99 48 83% 1.4k $13k (exactly $12,946) Paper Tiger
超探偵シャーロックちゃん　～掟破りのミスディレクション～ $9.99 38 73% 1.1k $11k (exactly $11,389) おんねんちゃんねる
CrimeBot 2: Detective Mystery Games $7.99 24 50% 720 $5.8k (exactly $5,753) RoboBot Studio
Futa Night ⚔️ $4.99 18 83% 540 $2.7k (exactly $2,695) TheBigO Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.