Do I ship it?

Games › Logic › Logic + Assassins

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Assassin Logic game?

Logic + Assassins

Only 13 developers shipped an Assassin Logic game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Beyond R: Rule Ripper, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 11 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $23k, ×16 the market median. Revenue is up 145% on the market; 11 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 145% on the market, 11 announced, ×1.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Logic + Assassins
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $2.1k → $3.5k → $809 (still earning) → $958 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Logic + Assassins: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $597 (exactly $597)
Top 25% $2.5k (exactly $2,514)
Top 5% $24k (exactly $23,990)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 32
Announced 11
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 145% on the market, supply 235% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Logic
effort 2 / 10 · high · deductive rules and grids
Assassins
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Logic; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Hidden Object, Puzzle
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Dialogue Heavy, Gore
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 210 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $600, 1 in 4 over $2.5k, 1 in 20 over $23k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 11 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Logic with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LovecraftianFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 19 announced
  2. + City BuilderFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + NoirFair42 devs · median $2.7k · 59 announced
  4. + HackingFair60 devs · median $2.5k · 67 announced
  5. + VampiresFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 14 announced
  6. + DragonsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 8 announced
  7. + Escape RoomFair54 devs · median $2.1k · 44 announced
  8. + Bullet TimeFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  9. + Inventory ManagementFair70 devs · median $1.7k · 74 announced
  10. + TransportationFair29 devs · median $1.7k · 30 announced
  11. + Automobile SimFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + CookingFair27 devs · median $1.6k · 26 announced

All 200 pairs on the Logic page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Beyond R: Rule Ripper 2025 · $24k The Divine Deception 2021 · $17k 8AM 2024 · $16k OVRDARK: a Do Not Open story 2024 · $14k 烧尾宴 2026 · $14k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Beyond R: Rule Ripper $24.99 32 90% 960 $24k (exactly $23,990) Tohriv, GJ Staff
The Divine Deception older $14.99 38 86% 1.1k $17k (exactly $17,089) Themisian
8AM older $3.99 130 73% 3.9k $16k (exactly $15,561) David Gallardo
OVRDARK: a Do Not Open story older $29.99 16 68% 480 $14k (exactly $14,395) NoxNoctis
烧尾宴 $8.99 52 75% 1.6k $14k (exactly $14,024) 有点正经
The Katydids Incident older $4.99 53 100% 1.6k $7.9k (exactly $7,934) Punx Studios
False Alarm $9.99 14 100% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Scattered Discs
8AM: The Swimming Pool $3.99 31 74% 930 $3.7k (exactly $3,711) David Gallardo
DETECTIVE - Minerva case older $10.99 11 81% 330 $3.6k (exactly $3,627) k148 Game Studio
Targeted –10 Days older $4.99 24 100% 720 $3.6k (exactly $3,593) Glitchy Frame Studio
8AM: The Office $3.99 29 72% 870 $3.5k (exactly $3,471) David Gallardo
8AM: The Shopping Mall $3.99 21 71% 630 $2.5k (exactly $2,514) David Gallardo
Assassinvisible $6.99 10 100% 300 $2.1k (exactly $2,097) Club Tartine
8AM: The Subway $3.99 8 87% 240 $958 (exactly $958) David Gallardo
Last Shinobi $8.99 3 100% 90 $809 (exactly $809) Dark Tomato Studio
Bakka $1.99 10 100% 300 $597 (exactly $597) Mathieu POWALKA

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.