Games › Visual Novel › Visual Novel + Artificial Intelligence
Should I ship an AI Visual Novel?
Visual Novel + Artificial Intelligence
Of 187 developers who shipped an AI Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 160 more are announced.
Verdict: fair, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×5.7 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $420. Revenue is up 260% on the market; 160 games are announced against 131 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $416 (exactly $416) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.7k (exactly $2,697) |
| Top 25% | $22k (exactly $22,385) |
| Top 5% | $234k (exactly $233,805) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 187 |
| Released games | 384 |
| Announced | 160 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 260% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
- Artificial Intelligence
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Visual Novel; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Choices Matter, Simulation
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Anime
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 86% positive over 22,371 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $420. 8 in 10 of the 83 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 160 games are announced against 131 developers who shipped in the last year.
Adjacent niches
Visual Novel with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + City BuilderStrong odds
- + MusicStrong odds
- + TrainsStrong odds
- + Souls-likeFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + RhythmFair
- + JRPGFair
- + Immersive SimFair
- + SwordplayFair
- + GamblingFair
- + DiplomacyFair
Comparable games
STEINS;GATE 0 2018 · $8.3M 
AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES - nirvanA Initiative 2022 · $4.3M 
Road to Empress Ⅱ 2026 · $4.2M 
KinitoPET 2024 · $2.4M 
FEMBOY FUTA HOUSE 2025 · $1.9M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | STEINS;GATE 0 | older | $34.99 | 7,916 95% | 237k | $8.3M (exactly $8,309,425) | MAGES. Inc. |
| | AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES - nirvanA Initiative | older | $39.99 | 3,571 86% | 107k | $4.3M (exactly $4,284,129) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. |
| | Road to Empress Ⅱ | $18.00 | 7,773 80% | 233k | $4.2M (exactly $4,197,420) | New One Studio | |
| | KinitoPET | older | $5.99 | 13,438 92% | 403k | $2.4M (exactly $2,414,809) | troy_en |
| | FEMBOY FUTA HOUSE | $14.99 | 4,131 89% | 124k | $1.9M (exactly $1,857,711) | IT'S A TRAP | |
 | Inari | older | $14.99 | 2,387 94% | 72k | $1.1M (exactly $1,073,434) | Seikou Soft. |
 | No Sleep For Kaname Date - From AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES | $39.99 | 835 79% | 25k | $1.0M (exactly $1,001,750) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. | |
 | S4U: CITYPUNK 2011 AND LOVE PUNCH | $13.99 | 2,324 90% | 70k | $975k (exactly $975,383) | U0U Games | |
 | AI2U: With You 'Til The End | $14.99 | 2,073 87% | 62k | $932k (exactly $932,228) | AlterStaff Inc. | |
 | Kugayama Shiori's Death Diary | $24.99 | 987 95% | 30k | $740k (exactly $739,954) | Laplacian | |
 | Whispers from the Star | $9.99 | 1,662 80% | 50k | $498k (exactly $498,101) | Anuttacon | |
 | 恋爱吗？我家猫会后空翻 | $9.99 | 1,508 96% | 45k | $452k (exactly $451,948) | 光循花火工作室 | |
 | Detective Sherlock: Shadow Stalker | · EA | $19.99 | 428 88% | 13k | $257k (exactly $256,672) | Gamercury |
 | Heatwave: Sam's Stay | $11.99 | 650 94% | 20k | $234k (exactly $233,805) | CodyFord |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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