Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based TacticsTurn-Based Tactics + Artificial Intelligence

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an AI Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + Artificial Intelligence

Of 59 developers who shipped an AI Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 91 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $230k, ×378 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 91 games are announced against 43 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 91 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + Artificial Intelligence
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 59
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $4.0k → $599 → $1.8k → $1.7k → $11k → $628 (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + Artificial Intelligence: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 59
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $897 (exactly $897)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $10,912)
Top 5% $237k (exactly $237,130)
Developers, 2 yr 59
Released games 202
Announced 91
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 155% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Artificial Intelligence
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
9 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 4,792 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $900, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $230k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 91 games are announced against 43 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  9. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  12. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Warhammer 40,000: Gladius - Relics of War older $39.99 8,148 82% 244k $9.8M (exactly $9,775,156) Proxy Studios
Panzer Corps 2 older $39.99 3,512 84% 105k $4.2M (exactly $4,213,346) Flashback Games
5D Chess With Multiverse Time Travel older $11.99 8,097 96% 243k $2.9M (exactly $2,912,491) Conor Petersen, Thunkspace, LLC
Teamfight Manager 2 · EA $19.99 2,251 60% 68k $1.3M (exactly $1,349,925) Team Samoyed
Screeps: World older $19.99 1,934 86% 58k $1.2M (exactly $1,159,820) Screeps, LLC
Moonbreaker older $29.99 1,289 84% 39k $1.2M (exactly $1,159,713) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Combat Mission Shock Force 2 older $59.99 624 80% 19k $1.1M (exactly $1,123,013) Battlefront
Field of Glory: Empires older $39.99 734 81% 22k $881k (exactly $880,580) Ageod
Close Combat: The Bloody First older $39.99 397 51% 12k $476k (exactly $476,281) Matrix Games
The Conquest of Go $14.99 581 94% 17k $261k (exactly $261,276) Wolfey Studios
Backpack Jianghu $13.99 565 80% 17k $237k (exactly $237,130) 背包工作室
Twilight Wars $14.99 229 74% 6.9k $103k (exactly $102,981) Comrade Bear Games
Backpack Dungeon $3.99 656 87% 20k $79k (exactly $78,523) 夜喵
Screeps: Arena $19.99 105 82% 3.2k $63k (exactly $62,968) Screeps, LLC
Deviation Game · EA $14.99 109 90% 3.3k $49k (exactly $49,017) Tomo Kihara, Playfool
The Book of Outcasts $9.99 101 70% 3.0k $30k (exactly $30,270) kamti
AI Spelcraft $7.99 125 88% 3.8k $30k (exactly $29,962) MONO ENTERTAINMENT
The False God's Fold $11.99 70 78% 2.1k $25k (exactly $25,179) Night Owl Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.