Do I ship it?

Games › Party-Based RPG › Party-Based RPG + Artificial Intelligence

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an AI Party-Based RPG?

Party-Based RPG + Artificial Intelligence

Only 13 developers shipped an AI Party-Based RPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Clair Obscur: Expedition 33, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×0.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 22 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper, while revenue is down 100% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 22 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Party-Based RPG + Artificial Intelligence
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $359 → $0 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Party-Based RPG + Artificial Intelligence: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $11,089)
Top 5% $272M (exactly $272,446,000)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 28
Announced 22
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 235% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 32%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Party-Based RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Artificial Intelligence
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Party-Based RPG
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 8 games average 95% positive over 182,229 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $360, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $270M.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 22 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Party-Based RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Board GameFair24 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  2. + Point & ClickFair17 devs · median $2.5k · 20 announced
  3. + 2D PlatformerFair55 devs · median $599 · 42 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair15 devs · median $479 · 16 announced
  5. + Martial ArtsPoor odds5 devs · median $230k · 16 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $49k · 25 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds23 devs · median $34k · 71 announced
  8. + BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $32k · 37 announced
  9. + AutomationPoor odds14 devs · median $21k · 28 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds67 devs · median $19k · 76 announced
  11. + Base BuildingPoor odds19 devs · median $19k · 51 announced
  12. + IncrementalPoor odds18 devs · median $15k · 45 announced

All 111 pairs on the Party-Based RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 2025 · $272M SWORD ART ONLINE Last Recollection 2023 · $810k AI Roguelite 2023 · $268k BM Love Cafe 2024 · $49k SCRIBBLE HUNT 2026 · $36k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 $49.99 181,667 95% 5.5M $272M (exactly $272,446,000) Sandfall Interactive
SWORD ART ONLINE Last Recollection older $59.99 450 58% 14k $810k (exactly $809,865) AQURIA Co., Ltd.
AI Roguelite older $14.99 597 83% 18k $268k (exactly $268,471) Max Loh
BM Love Cafe $7.99 204 77% 6.1k $49k (exactly $48,899) zzzgame
SCRIBBLE HUNT $3.99 302 81% 9.1k $36k (exactly $36,149) SCRIBBLE BUNNY
三國立志傳2 older $7.99 135 80% 4.1k $32k (exactly $32,360) T-Time Technology CO., LTD.
Monsters' Den: Book of Vengeance · EA $9.99 37 83% 1.1k $11k (exactly $11,089) Monstrum
Through the Kill Screen older $5.99 21 95% 630 $3.8k (exactly $3,774) James K. Isaac
Dungeon of Calibris: Demon Orb $5.99 13 84% 390 $2.3k (exactly $2,336) Dalex Software Planning
NINJA CATS: Tactics · EA $19.99 1 0% 30 $600 (exactly $600) Pit-Step, Inc.
魔姬征服者 Twelve Succubus $2.99 4 50% 120 $359 (exactly $359) 从零通关
Primus $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Ethan Clarke
Trouble Magic $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Cozy Beast Studio
Final battle in zhifudao $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) JIANGFENG

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.