Do I ship it?

Games › Turn-Based Tactics › Turn-Based Tactics + Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Arcade Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + Arcade

Of 90 developers who shipped an Arcade Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 142 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $100k, ×174 the market median. Revenue is up 215% on the market; 142 games are announced against 60 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 215% on the market, 142 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 90
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.1k → $479 → $807 → $299 → $1.3k → $536 → $748 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 90
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $536 (exactly $536)
Top 25% $2.2k (exactly $2,248)
Top 5% $109k (exactly $109,277)
Developers, 2 yr 90
Released games 253
Announced 142
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 215% on the market, supply 95% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics, Arcade; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, Roguelike
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 29,387 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $540, 1 in 4 over $2.2k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 42 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 142 games are announced against 60 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  9. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  12. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

STAR WARS Zero Company™ 2026 · $29M WRC 7 FIA World Rally Championship 2017 · $7.3M Xenonauts 2 2026 · $5.8M Punch Club 2: Fast Forward 2023 · $2.3M Shotgun King: The Final Checkmate 2022 · $1.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
STAR WARS Zero Company™ $49.99 19,521 82% 586k $29M (exactly $29,275,644) Bit Reactor
WRC 7 FIA World Rally Championship older $19.99 12,146 82% 364k $7.3M (exactly $7,283,956) KT Racing
Xenonauts 2 $39.99 4,853 81% 146k $5.8M (exactly $5,822,144) Goldhawk Interactive
Punch Club 2: Fast Forward older $19.99 3,808 81% 114k $2.3M (exactly $2,283,658) Lazy Bear Games
Shotgun King: The Final Checkmate older $9.99 5,918 92% 178k $1.8M (exactly $1,773,625) PUNKCAKE Delicieux
Drop Duchy $14.99 2,962 89% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,332,011) Sleepy Mill Studio
Warhounds $34.99 735 71% 22k $772k (exactly $771,530) Everplay DMCC
Cursed to Golf older $19.99 693 70% 21k $416k (exactly $415,592) Chuhai Labs
Beach Invasion 1944 older $9.99 1,038 84% 31k $311k (exactly $311,089) AIx2 Games
Peace, Death! 2 older $4.99 854 95% 26k $128k (exactly $127,844) AZAMATIKA
Drop Pockets · EA $14.99 243 83% 7.3k $109k (exactly $109,277) Children of Madness
Swords and Sandals 3 Redux $9.99 233 87% 7.0k $70k (exactly $69,830) Whiskeybarrel Studios
Merge Maestro $3.99 384 93% 12k $46k (exactly $45,965) Stingless
Sushi Cat Legacy Collection $4.99 263 95% 7.9k $39k (exactly $39,371) Armor Games Studios
ploink $12.99 91 96% 2.7k $35k (exactly $35,463) Pyrocreep
TypInc. $9.99 102 74% 3.1k $31k (exactly $30,569) Game Game Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.