Do I ship it?

Games › Procedural Generation › Procedural Generation + Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Procedural Generation Arcade game?

Procedural Generation + Arcade

Of 417 developers who shipped a Procedural Generation Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 527 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450 in the last 2 years and $480 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 253 developers shipped in the last year and 527 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 527 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Procedural Generation + Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 417
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.4k → $958 → $538 → $597 → $628 → $838 → $359 (still earning) → $162 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Procedural Generation + Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 417
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $2.7k (exactly $2,697)
Top 5% $100k (exactly $100,283)
Developers, 2 yr 417
Released games 1,197
Announced 527
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Procedural Generation, Arcade; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelite, Roguelike
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 94,597 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $450, 1 in 4 over $2.6k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 180 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 527 games are announced against 253 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Procedural Generation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SnowFair11 devs · median $3.0k · 16 announced
  2. + Traditional RoguelikeFair71 devs · median $2.0k · 93 announced
  3. + DetectiveFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 30 announced
  4. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $1.3k · 23 announced
  5. + TypingFair26 devs · median $1.1k · 11 announced
  6. + IdlerFair98 devs · median $807 · 107 announced
  7. + LogicFair137 devs · median $478 · 149 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair57 devs · median $449 · 62 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair49 devs · median $449 · 42 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair58 devs · median $418 · 56 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds31 devs · median $77k · 95 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds22 devs · median $30k · 35 announced

All 222 pairs on the Procedural Generation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Balatro 2024 · $72M Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor 2025 · $18M Rogue Legacy 2 2022 · $11M The Precinct 2025 · $7.1M Windblown 2024 · EA · $6.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Balatro older $14.99 160,715 97% 4.8M $72M (exactly $72,273,536) LocalThunk
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor $12.99 46,354 86% 1.4M $18M (exactly $18,064,154) Funday Games
Rogue Legacy 2 older $24.99 14,238 90% 427k $11M (exactly $10,674,229) Cellar Door Games
The Precinct $29.99 7,837 87% 235k $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) Fallen Tree Games Ltd
Windblown · EA $24.99 9,066 88% 272k $6.8M (exactly $6,796,780) Motion Twin
Spelunky older $14.99 14,676 92% 440k $6.6M (exactly $6,599,797) Mossmouth
Rogue: Genesia $14.99 8,111 90% 243k $3.6M (exactly $3,647,517) Ouadi Huard
AudioSurf older $9.99 8,901 95% 267k $2.7M (exactly $2,667,630) Dylan Fitterer
Space Rangers HD: A War Apart older $14.99 5,848 94% 175k $2.6M (exactly $2,629,846) SNK Games, Elemental Games, Katauri Int… (SNK Games, Elemental Games, Katauri Interactive)
Audiosurf 2 older $14.99 5,364 82% 161k $2.4M (exactly $2,412,191) Dylan Fitterer
Everything is Crab: The Animal Evolution Roguelite $9.99 6,876 76% 206k $2.1M (exactly $2,060,737) Odd Dreams Digital
Dungeon Clawler $14.99 3,716 88% 111k $1.7M (exactly $1,671,085) Stray Fawn Studio
RACCOIN: Coin Pusher Roguelike $11.99 4,239 82% 127k $1.5M (exactly $1,524,768) Doraccoon
Drop Duchy $14.99 2,962 89% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,332,011) Sleepy Mill Studio
How Many Dudes? $14.99 2,948 89% 88k $1.3M (exactly $1,325,716) Butterscotch Shenanigans
Glyphica: Typing Survival · EA $9.99 2,488 90% 75k $746k (exactly $745,654) aliasBLACK

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.