Do I ship it?

GamesPuzzle PlatformerPuzzle Platformer + Alternate History

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alternate-History Puzzle Platformer?

Puzzle Platformer + Alternate History

Only 10 developers shipped an Alternate-History Puzzle Platformer in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, 烧尾宴, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 43 more are announced, ×7.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 6 developers shipped in the last year and 43 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 43 announced, ×7.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Puzzle Platformer + Alternate History
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $6.0k → $269 → $5.4k → $150 → $239 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Puzzle Platformer + Alternate History: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $358 (exactly $358)
Top 25% $449 (exactly $449)
Top 5% $14k (exactly $14,024)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 56
Announced 43
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 25%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Puzzle Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Alternate History
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Puzzle Platformer
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 7 games average 85% positive over 94 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $360, 1 in 4 over $440, 1 in 20 over $14k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 7 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 43 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Puzzle Platformer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceFair41 devs · median $1.5k · 38 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair20 devs · median $1.1k · 26 announced
  3. + Life SimFair20 devs · median $657 · 21 announced
  4. + SimulationFair216 devs · median $479 · 181 announced
  5. + Grid-Based MovementFair62 devs · median $449 · 56 announced
  6. + SokobanFair51 devs · median $358 · 49 announced
  7. + LovecraftianPoor odds11 devs · median $9.3k · 22 announced
  8. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds26 devs · median $9.0k · 53 announced
  9. + MetroidvaniaPoor odds91 devs · median $5.3k · 264 announced
  10. + SwordplayPoor odds8 devs · median $4.2k · 19 announced
  11. + Split ScreenPoor odds24 devs · median $3.6k · 35 announced
  12. + Hack and SlashPoor odds18 devs · median $3.0k · 80 announced

All 169 pairs on the Puzzle Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
7th Sector older $10.99 643 72% 19k $212k (exactly $211,997) Носков Сергей
Lifeless Moon older $12.99 256 78% 7.7k $100k (exactly $99,763) Serenity Forge
Mr. Pumpkin 2: Kowloon walled city older $5.99 522 91% 16k $94k (exactly $93,803) Cotton Game
Time Loader older $7.99 387 83% 12k $93k (exactly $92,764) Flazm
Treasures of the Aegean older $19.99 82 86% 2.5k $49k (exactly $49,175) Undercoders
Aztech Forgotten Gods older $29.99 50 66% 1.5k $45k (exactly $44,985) Lienzo
Joe Wander and the Enigmatic Adventures older $29.99 48 79% 1.4k $43k (exactly $43,186) Frozen Pixel
AtmaSphere 2 older $4.99 146 79% 4.4k $22k (exactly $21,856) Mazen Games
Mozart Requiem older $29.99 16 43% 480 $14k (exactly $14,395) Hoplite Research LLC
烧尾宴 $8.99 52 75% 1.6k $14k (exactly $14,024) 有点正经
Signal Maze $14.99 24 95% 720 $11k (exactly $10,793) theArkitect
Kano. Stone islands. $2.99 5 100% 150 $449 (exactly $449) Sirotkin Aleksandr
Berserker 2: The Saga of Hilde $5.99 2 100% 60 $359 (exactly $359) One Life Games
PlanckMan $1.99 6 100% 180 $358 (exactly $358) bl3i
Devour the Elixir $1.99 4 100% 120 $239 (exactly $239) 泉游工作室
Pizza Rogue: P.P.M.P.D.E.S. $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Seaweaver, Snowifer
Tempus Umbra · EA $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Jabsz Studios
盗梦诡探:神鬼出游 $2.00 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) 猎奇的面具猫
Pointer Manual $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) 川月瑰奇

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.