Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alternate-History Platformer?

Platformer + Alternate History

Only 16 developers shipped an Alternate-History Platformer in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Chimera CUSTOM XG, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 73 more are announced, ×9.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 8 developers shipped in the last year and 73 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 73 announced, ×9.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Platformer + Alternate History
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $2.2k → $269 → $5.4k → $299 → $987
Outcomes for Platformer + Alternate History: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,593)
Top 5% $7.8k (exactly $7,796)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 89
Announced 73
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Alternate History
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Platformer
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 162 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $300, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $7.7k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 73 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×9.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Platformer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds19 devs · median $3.0k · 15 announced
  2. + PinballStrong odds10 devs · median $2.5k · 6 announced
  3. + Combat RacingFair28 devs · median $899 · 38 announced
  4. + FMVFair9 devs · median $899 · 10 announced
  5. + SimulationFair281 devs · median $628 · 235 announced
  6. + Grid-Based MovementFair23 devs · median $539 · 18 announced
  7. + AutomationFair13 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  8. + Turn-Based TacticsLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced
  9. + LGBTQ+Poor odds42 devs · median $7.2k · 90 announced
  10. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds32 devs · median $6.5k · 90 announced
  11. + JRPGPoor odds14 devs · median $5.8k · 38 announced
  12. + SkateboardingPoor odds14 devs · median $4.8k · 23 announced

All 206 pairs on the Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Time Loader 2021 · $93k Ebenezer and the Invisible World 2023 · $64k Little Orpheus 2022 · $59k Treasures of the Aegean 2021 · $49k Aztech Forgotten Gods 2022 · $45k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Time Loader older $7.99 387 83% 12k $93k (exactly $92,764) Flazm
Ebenezer and the Invisible World older $19.99 107 73% 3.2k $64k (exactly $64,168) Orbit Studio, Play on Worlds
Little Orpheus older $4.99 393 67% 12k $59k (exactly $58,832) The Chinese Room
Treasures of the Aegean older $19.99 82 86% 2.5k $49k (exactly $49,175) Undercoders
Aztech Forgotten Gods older $29.99 50 66% 1.5k $45k (exactly $44,985) Lienzo
Joe Wander and the Enigmatic Adventures older $29.99 48 79% 1.4k $43k (exactly $43,186) Frozen Pixel
Yupitergrad 🚀(Virtual Reality Adventure) older $14.99 88 95% 2.6k $40k (exactly $39,574) Gamedust
Pixel Ripped 1978: An Atari Adventure older $24.99 52 76% 1.6k $39k (exactly $38,984) ARVORE
I dont Fall older $6.99 169 84% 5.1k $35k (exactly $35,439) PUMPKIM
Heidelberg 1693 older $14.99 61 81% 1.8k $27k (exactly $27,432) Andrade Games
Chimera CUSTOM XG · EA $19.99 13 100% 390 $7.8k (exactly $7,796) Volok Games
Sheep Seeker $9.99 22 100% 660 $6.6k (exactly $6,593) Isaac MENARD, Luna GARCIN, Alexander KI… (Isaac MENARD, Luna GARCIN, Alexander KIRK, Séverin RICHARD, Matthieu FARROW, François HANUS, Quentin EUNG, Mattéo GLAIRON-MONDET, Lucas RENARD, Céline TRUONG)
DEAD DAYLIGHT $2.99 71 88% 2.1k $6.4k (exactly $6,369) KARMIU
Agent Fall $4.99 24 95% 720 $3.6k (exactly $3,593) Pufferfish Digital
Redhelm Dynasty $5.99 12 100% 360 $2.2k (exactly $2,156) Tirazis
Escape The Wojak GOTY $2.99 11 100% 330 $987 (exactly $987) Chungledown Max, Game Dev Guy
Kano. Stone islands. $2.99 5 100% 150 $449 (exactly $449) Sirotkin Aleksandr
Tsan-shadow ninja $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) cheshewstudio
Car May Fly · EA $6.99 1 100% 30 $210 (exactly $210) carmayflystudio
POGO Epoch: Impossible 99% · EA $5.99 1 0% 30 $180 (exactly $180) 힉학헉

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.