Do I ship it?

GamesBoard GameBoard Game + Aliens

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alien Board Game?

Board Game + Aliens

Only 9 developers shipped an Alien Board Game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Stellar Orphans, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced, ×5.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $5.8k against a market of $480. 21 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 12.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 640% on the market, 21 announced, ×5.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Board Game + Aliens
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $21k → $6.7k → $24k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Board Game + Aliens: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $5.8k (exactly $5,756)
Top 25% $37k (exactly $37,022)
Top 5% $71k (exactly $70,848)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 44
Announced 21
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 640% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Board Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Aliens
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Board Game
Price point
$12.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 2,200 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $5.8k, 1 in 4 over $37k, 1 in 20 over $70k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Board Game with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Party-Based RPGFair24 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  2. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair30 devs · median $6.7k · 33 announced
  3. + JRPGFair13 devs · median $2.5k · 7 announced
  4. + Local Co-OpFair35 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced
  5. + Female ProtagonistFair35 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  6. + HistoricalFair60 devs · median $1.3k · 81 announced
  7. + LGBTQ+Fair8 devs · median $1.2k · 5 announced
  8. + SpaceFair28 devs · median $1.2k · 27 announced
  9. + Alternate HistoryFair20 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  10. + MahjongFair28 devs · median $1.1k · 21 announced
  11. + Party GameFair72 devs · median $899 · 98 announced
  12. + DragonsFair15 devs · median $838 · 15 announced

All 152 pairs on the Board Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Nemesis: Lockdown older $24.99 732 68% 22k $549k (exactly $548,780) InterStudio
Gaia Project older $24.99 351 80% 11k $263k (exactly $263,145) DIGIDICED
The Banished Vault older $24.99 189 78% 5.7k $142k (exactly $141,693) Lunar Division
Stellar Orphans $16.99 139 71% 4.2k $71k (exactly $70,848) Artifex Parvus
Space Food Truck older $9.99 216 71% 6.5k $65k (exactly $64,735) One Man Left Studios
Galaxy Trucker: Extended Edition older $9.99 213 89% 6.4k $64k (exactly $63,836) CGE Digital
Amberspire $24.99 58 86% 1.7k $43k (exactly $43,483) Lunar Division
The Captain is Dead older $19.99 66 78% 2.0k $40k (exactly $39,580) Thunderbox Entertainment
Eclipse - 2nd Dawn for the Galaxy $12.99 95 57% 2.9k $37k (exactly $37,022) BrettspielWelt GmbH
Smash Up older $6.99 141 60% 4.2k $30k (exactly $29,568) Nomad Games
Astro Protocol $11.99 66 93% 2.0k $24k (exactly $23,740) Null Vector Studios
Witchcrafter The TCG $15.99 12 83% 360 $5.8k (exactly $5,756) Spear Group Limited
UniWar $7.99 14 71% 420 $3.4k (exactly $3,356) Spooky House
Space Memory TDG $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) TDG Gaming Studio
Teamfight Royale $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Festucs Interactive
HexSwarm: Hostile Worlds $29.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Studio in Progress

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.