Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + Trading

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Trading Adventure game?

Adventure + Trading

Of 73 developers who shipped a Trading Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 242 more are announced, ×6.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $300k, ×638 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 242 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.5 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 242 announced, ×6.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Trading
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 73
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.0k → $1.8k → $756 → $1.2k → $1.6k → $1.3k → $3.2k (still earning) → $419 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Trading: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 73
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $29k (exactly $29,262)
Top 5% $303k (exactly $302,981)
Developers, 2 yr 73
Released games 250
Announced 242
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Trading
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure, Trading; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Simulation, Open World
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 13,694 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $29k, 1 in 20 over $300k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 47 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 242 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Elite Dangerous older $19.99 82,399 76% 2.5M $49M (exactly $49,414,680) Frontier Developments
Sunkenland · EA older $19.99 20,536 80% 616k $12M (exactly $12,315,439) Vector3 Studio
Drug Dealer Simulator older $19.99 18,297 85% 549k $11M (exactly $10,972,711) Byterunners
The Guild 3 older $29.99 7,120 60% 214k $6.4M (exactly $6,405,864) Purple Lamp, GolemLabs
X Rebirth older $29.99 5,156 42% 155k $4.6M (exactly $4,638,853) Egosoft
Rebel Galaxy older $19.99 7,255 85% 218k $4.4M (exactly $4,350,824) Double Damage Games
《蜀山:初章》买断版 older $24.99 5,772 74% 173k $4.3M (exactly $4,327,268) 重楼工作室
Drug Dealer Simulator 2 older $24.99 5,480 69% 164k $4.1M (exactly $4,108,356) Byterunners
Sailing Era older $24.99 4,565 78% 137k $3.4M (exactly $3,422,380) GY Games
My Garage $19.99 4,010 90% 120k $2.4M (exactly $2,404,797) Viking Game Studio
Prison Escape Simulator: Dig Out $7.99 3,490 85% 105k $837k (exactly $836,553) Digital Melody
The Last Gas Station $13.99 1,250 87% 38k $525k (exactly $524,625) Alawar
Dustland Delivery $7.99 1,264 88% 38k $303k (exactly $302,981) Neutron Star Studio
Windward Horizon $19.99 401 79% 12k $240k (exactly $240,480) Tasharen Entertainment Inc.
Concubine · EA $14.99 517 81% 16k $232k (exactly $232,495) Upgrade Entertainment
TRADESMAN: Deal to Dealer $4.99 1,528 78% 46k $229k (exactly $228,742) AZAMATIKA
Lugh World · EA $14.99 458 68% 14k $206k (exactly $205,963) Lughsoft
A Merchant's Promise · EA $14.99 300 86% 9.0k $135k (exactly $134,910) Game Draft Studio
Hero of the Kingdom: The Lost Tales 3 $6.99 476 91% 14k $100k (exactly $99,817) Lonely Troops

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.