Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + Top-Down Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Top-Down Shooter Adventure game?

Adventure + Top-Down Shooter

Of 291 developers who shipped a Top-Down Shooter Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 506 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450, ×0.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90; 1 in 20 cleared $110k, ×241 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 506 games are announced against 148 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 506 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Top-Down Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 291
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $1.8k → $776 → $748 → $898 → $450 → $300 (still earning) → $358 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Top-Down Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 291
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $4.4k (exactly $4,404)
Top 5% $114k (exactly $114,485)
Developers, 2 yr 291
Released games 990
Announced 506
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure, Top-Down Shooter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Bullet Hell
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 99,610 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $450, 1 in 4 over $4.4k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 167 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 506 games are announced against 148 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Escape From Duckov $17.99 83,826 85% 2.5M $45M (exactly $45,240,892) Team Soda
The Ascent older $29.99 19,235 74% 577k $17M (exactly $17,305,730) Neon Giant
Darksiders Genesis older $29.99 10,379 82% 311k $9.3M (exactly $9,337,986) Airship Syndicate
The Last Stand: Aftermath older $24.99 6,096 80% 183k $4.6M (exactly $4,570,171) Con Artist Games
How to Survive 2 older $14.99 8,641 69% 259k $3.9M (exactly $3,885,858) Eko Software
Minishoot' Adventures older $14.99 7,818 97% 235k $3.5M (exactly $3,515,755) SoulGame Studio
Starcom: Unknown Space older $24.99 4,464 92% 134k $3.3M (exactly $3,346,661) Wx3 Labs, LLC
Heat Signature older $14.99 6,849 94% 205k $3.1M (exactly $3,079,995) Suspicious Developments
Tiny Rogues · EA older $9.99 10,244 96% 307k $3.1M (exactly $3,070,127) RubyDev
Wizard with a Gun older $24.99 2,932 80% 88k $2.2M (exactly $2,198,120) Galvanic Games
Silly Polly Beast $19.99 2,278 90% 68k $1.4M (exactly $1,366,117) Anji
R.I.P. - Reincarnation Insurance Program $14.99 2,727 76% 82k $1.2M (exactly $1,226,332) WarmCore Studio
Gatekeeper $14.99 2,706 82% 81k $1.2M (exactly $1,216,888) Gravity Lagoon
Greedland $12.99 2,919 83% 88k $1.1M (exactly $1,137,534) VaMP He
Relic Hunters Legend $19.99 1,101 65% 33k $660k (exactly $660,270) Rogue Snail
Reality Break $24.99 683 80% 20k $512k (exactly $512,045) Element Games, LLC
Section 13 $19.99 770 70% 23k $462k (exactly $461,769) Ocean Drive Studio, Inc.
Asgard's Fall — Viking Survivors $9.99 1,301 79% 39k $390k (exactly $389,910) Soulpotion
ButtKnight $9.99 1,299 91% 39k $389k (exactly $389,310) Goblin Stew, Critical Bliss

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.