Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + Tabletop

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Tabletop Adventure game?

Adventure + Tabletop

Of 97 developers who shipped a Tabletop Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 127 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2804 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 127 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 127 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Tabletop
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 97
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.3k → $1.1k → $779 → $4.7k → $1.6k → $327 → $600 (still earning) → $2.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Tabletop: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 97
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $898 (exactly $898)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,390)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,332,011)
Developers, 2 yr 97
Released games 473
Announced 127
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Tabletop
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure, Tabletop; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Board Game
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 44,611 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $900, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 8 in 10 of the 58 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 127 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sultan's Game $24.99 25,061 93% 752k $19M (exactly $18,788,232) Double Cross
For The King older $19.99 31,038 87% 931k $19M (exactly $18,613,489) IronOak Games
For The King II older $24.99 12,708 71% 381k $9.5M (exactly $9,527,188) IronOak Games
Armello older $24.99 11,013 82% 330k $8.3M (exactly $8,256,446) League of Geeks
Esoteric Ebb $24.99 8,719 95% 262k $6.5M (exactly $6,536,634) Christoffer Bodegård
Baldur's Gate II: Enhanced Edition older $19.99 9,478 92% 284k $5.7M (exactly $5,683,957) Beamdog
Citizen Sleeper older $19.99 8,271 92% 248k $5.0M (exactly $4,960,119) Jump Over The Age
The Life and Suffering of Sir Brante older $19.99 8,151 89% 245k $4.9M (exactly $4,888,155) Sever, Schisma Games
Hand of Fate older $19.99 8,009 89% 240k $4.8M (exactly $4,802,997) Defiant Development
Sunderfolk $49.99 1,890 93% 57k $2.8M (exactly $2,834,433) Secret Door
Citizen Sleeper 2: Starward Vector $24.99 2,358 91% 71k $1.8M (exactly $1,767,793) Jump Over The Age
Drop Duchy $14.99 2,962 89% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,332,011) Sleepy Mill Studio
Stripjong - Super Real Mahjong Venus Returns $29.99 740 80% 22k $666k (exactly $665,778) ILLUMINATION
Terrinoth®: Heroes of Descent $34.99 441 75% 13k $463k (exactly $462,918) Artefacts Studio, Shine Group
Inkshade $19.99 620 87% 19k $372k (exactly $371,814) Studio Vezelle
Loot of Baal $8.99 1,372 62% 41k $370k (exactly $370,028) Gleamer Studio
Viractal: Will You Trust Your Party? $24.99 448 88% 13k $336k (exactly $335,866) Sting

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.