Do I ship it?

GamesSouls-likeSouls-like + Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Adventure Souls-like?

Souls-like + Adventure

Of 411 developers who shipped an Adventure Souls-like in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 891 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.2k, ×2.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $2.3M, ×1570 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 891 games are announced against 242 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 891 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Souls-like + Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 411
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.5k → $4.5k → $2.4k → $6.6k → $4.9k → $4.5k → $2.4k (still earning) → $7.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Souls-like + Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 411
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $4.2k (exactly $4,192)
Top 25% $49k (exactly $48,576)
Top 5% $2.4M (exactly $2,352,208)
Developers, 2 yr 411
Released games 1,261
Announced 891
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Souls-like
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Souls-like, Adventure; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, RPG, Action-Adventure
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 1,063,081 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $4.2k, 1 in 4 over $48k, 1 in 20 over $2.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 217 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 891 games are announced against 242 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Souls-like with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  3. + Artificial IntelligenceFair13 devs · median $22k · 17 announced
  4. + JRPGFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  6. + PsychologicalFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerLong shot49 devs · median $776 · 46 announced
  9. + Score AttackLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  10. + WarPoor odds8 devs · median $451k · 22 announced
  11. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds12 devs · median $88k · 21 announced
  12. + RomancePoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 16 announced

All 122 pairs on the Souls-like page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Black Myth: Wukong older $59.99 881,186 96% 26M $1.6B (exactly $1,585,870,444) Game Science
DARK SOULS™ III older $59.99 278,034 94% 8.3M $500M (exactly $500,377,790) FromSoftware, Inc.
Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition older $59.99 259,508 95% 7.8M $467M (exactly $467,036,548) FromSoftware, Inc.
Monster Hunter: World older $29.99 317,068 89% 9.5M $285M (exactly $285,266,080) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 $49.99 181,667 95% 5.5M $272M (exactly $272,446,000) Sandfall Interactive
Crimson Desert Enhanced $69.99 115,056 83% 3.5M $242M (exactly $241,583,083) Pearl Abyss
Hollow Knight: Silksong $19.99 386,977 89% 12M $232M (exactly $232,070,107) Team Cherry
Hollow Knight older $14.99 502,960 96% 15M $226M (exactly $226,181,112) Team Cherry
God of War older $49.99 129,712 95% 3.9M $195M (exactly $194,529,086) Santa Monica Studio, Jetpack Interactive
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ older $39.99 153,782 88% 4.6M $184M (exactly $184,492,265) Respawn Entertainment
Path of Exile 2 · EA $29.99 167,730 76% 5.0M $151M (exactly $150,906,681) Grinding Gear Games
Stellar Blade™ $59.99 61,289 93% 1.8M $110M (exactly $110,301,813) SHIFT UP Corporation
WUCHANG: Fallen Feathers $49.99 44,865 58% 1.3M $67M (exactly $67,284,040) Leenzee
PRAGMATA $59.99 32,885 96% 987k $59M (exactly $59,183,134) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
God of War Ragnarök $59.99 32,502 89% 975k $58M (exactly $58,493,849) Santa Monica Studio, Jetpack Interactive
SILENT HILL f $69.99 19,061 80% 572k $40M (exactly $40,022,382) NeoBards Entertainment Ltd.
The First Berserker: Khazan $59.99 21,049 85% 631k $38M (exactly $37,881,885) Neople

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.