Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + Sokoban

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sokoban Adventure game?

Adventure + Sokoban

Of 85 developers who shipped a Sokoban Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 109 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×3.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $36k, ×77 the market median. Revenue is up 115% on the market; 109 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 115% on the market, 109 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Sokoban
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 85
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.3k → $10k → $3.0k → $1.0k → $2.1k → $6.9k → $1.3k (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Sokoban: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 85
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,559)
Top 25% $5.9k (exactly $5,872)
Top 5% $37k (exactly $36,582)
Developers, 2 yr 85
Released games 263
Announced 109
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 115% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Sokoban
effort 2 / 10 · high · grid pushing rules and level files

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure, Sokoban; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Logic, Exploration
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 97% positive over 1,442 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $5.8k, 1 in 20 over $36k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. Nearly all of the 47 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 109 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Catherine Classic older $19.99 8,858 88% 266k $5.3M (exactly $5,312,143) ATLUS
Void Stranger older $11.99 3,307 91% 99k $1.2M (exactly $1,189,528) System Erasure
A Monster's Expedition older $19.99 1,594 94% 48k $956k (exactly $955,922) Draknek & Friends
Isles of Sea and Sky older $19.99 1,538 91% 46k $922k (exactly $922,339) Cicada Games
Paper Trail older $19.99 726 94% 22k $435k (exactly $435,382) Newfangled Games
Ittle Dew older $19.99 481 92% 14k $288k (exactly $288,456) Ludosity
Lab Rat $19.99 365 97% 11k $219k (exactly $218,890) Chump Squad
Bonfire Peaks older $19.99 284 93% 8.5k $170k (exactly $170,315) Corey Martin, Alan Hazelden, Mari Zand,… (Corey Martin, Alan Hazelden, Mari Zand, Zach Soares)
Poke ALL Toads $11.99 447 100% 13k $161k (exactly $160,786) SpaceMatra
Backrooms Cats and Lava older $29.99 105 79% 3.2k $94k (exactly $94,468) Galactic Geckon
He Who Watches $19.99 109 96% 3.3k $65k (exactly $65,367) Bobby Vanden
Lord Ambermaze $14.99 131 91% 3.9k $59k (exactly $58,911) Potata Company
Puzzle Depot $19.99 61 100% 1.8k $37k (exactly $36,582) Laughing Manatee Games
Toroban $20.00 60 86% 1.8k $36k (exactly $36,000) Hebert Games LLC
HAMSTERMIND $12.99 73 97% 2.2k $28k (exactly $28,448) Righteous Tree
Ligo $14.99 54 100% 1.6k $24k (exactly $24,284) Anthony Berleur
AiliA $11.99 66 89% 2.0k $24k (exactly $23,740) IceToad Studio LLC
Slip 'n Slime $9.99 76 94% 2.3k $23k (exactly $22,777) Wild Magic Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.