Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + Shop Keeper

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Shop Keeper Adventure game?

Adventure + Shop Keeper

Of 61 developers who shipped a Shop Keeper Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 167 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.5k, ×7.4 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $780; 1 in 20 cleared $620k, ×1323 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 167 games are announced against 57 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.4 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 167 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Shop Keeper
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 61
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.2k → $3.5k → $3.5k (still earning) → $10k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Shop Keeper: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 61
Bottom 30% $772 (exactly $772)
Median $3.5k (exactly $3,510)
Top 25% $59k (exactly $59,380)
Top 5% $628k (exactly $628,231)
Developers, 2 yr 61
Released games 74
Announced 167
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 1325% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Shop Keeper
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure, Shop Keeper; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Life Sim, Management
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 13,420 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $780, median $3.5k, 1 in 4 over $59k, 1 in 20 over $620k.

3 in 10 developers made under $780. 6 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 167 games are announced against 57 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Recettear: An Item Shop's Tale older $19.99 6,684 95% 201k $4.0M (exactly $4,008,395) EasyGameStation
Moonlighter 2: The Endless Vault $29.99 3,146 80% 94k $2.8M (exactly $2,830,456) Digital Sun
Tavern Manager Simulator 🍻 older $14.99 4,018 91% 121k $1.8M (exactly $1,806,895) One More Time
Saleblazers · EA older $29.99 1,974 78% 59k $1.8M (exactly $1,776,008) AIRSTRAFE INTERACTIVE
Aeruta $19.99 2,391 94% 72k $1.4M (exactly $1,433,883) FromDawn Games
Bladesong · EA $19.99 1,483 95% 44k $889k (exactly $889,355) SUN AND SERPENT creations
Goblin Vyke: The Thief Tycoon $14.99 1,397 70% 42k $628k (exactly $628,231) Art Thieves
inKONBINI: One Store. Many Stories $19.99 996 85% 30k $597k (exactly $597,301) Nagai Industries
The Last Gas Station $13.99 1,250 87% 38k $525k (exactly $524,625) Alawar
Fell & Sell $9.99 1,428 84% 43k $428k (exactly $427,972) Art Games Studio S.A.
Anime Shop Simulator ✨ $14.99 589 73% 18k $265k (exactly $264,873) One More Time
A Merchant's Promise · EA $14.99 300 86% 9.0k $135k (exactly $134,910) Game Draft Studio
Wasteland Bites $9.99 440 93% 13k $132k (exactly $131,868) CosmicDev

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.