Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + Shoot 'Em Up

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Shoot 'Em Up Adventure game?

Adventure + Shoot 'Em Up

Of 288 developers who shipped a Shoot 'Em Up Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 395 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450, ×0.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $110k, ×238 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 395 games are announced against 147 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 395 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Shoot 'Em Up
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 288
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $1.5k → $390 → $718 → $748 → $898 → $300 (still earning) → $90 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Shoot 'Em Up: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 288
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $5.3k (exactly $5,292)
Top 5% $113k (exactly $112,875)
Developers, 2 yr 288
Released games 1,161
Announced 395
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Shoot 'Em Up
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure, Shoot 'Em Up; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Bullet Hell
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 31,561 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $450, 1 in 4 over $5.2k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 160 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 395 games are announced against 147 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Subverse $39.99 13,781 66% 413k $17M (exactly $16,533,066) Studio FOW Interactive
POSTAL 4: No Regerts older $19.99 10,855 67% 326k $6.5M (exactly $6,509,743) Running With Scissors
Journey To The Savage Planet older $29.99 5,674 87% 170k $5.1M (exactly $5,104,898) Typhoon
Saints Row®: The Third™ Remastered older $29.99 3,968 73% 119k $3.6M (exactly $3,570,010) Deep Silver Volition, Sperasoft
Minishoot' Adventures older $14.99 7,818 97% 235k $3.5M (exactly $3,515,755) SoulGame Studio
HARD BULLET · EA older $19.99 5,860 83% 176k $3.5M (exactly $3,514,242) GexagonVR
Metro Awakening $29.99 3,013 73% 90k $2.7M (exactly $2,710,796) Vertigo Games
Guns, Gore and Cannoli 2 older $12.99 4,742 94% 142k $1.8M (exactly $1,847,957) Rogueside, Claeysbrothers
Out There Somewhere older $9.99 6,160 92% 185k $1.8M (exactly $1,846,152) MiniBoss
Warhammer 40,000: Shootas, Blood & Teef older $19.99 2,586 87% 78k $1.6M (exactly $1,550,824) Rogueside
R.I.P. - Reincarnation Insurance Program $14.99 2,727 76% 82k $1.2M (exactly $1,226,332) WarmCore Studio
Greedland $12.99 2,919 83% 88k $1.1M (exactly $1,137,534) VaMP He
Bloodshed $12.99 1,824 84% 55k $711k (exactly $710,813) com8com1 Software
I Am Legion: Stand Survivors $8.99 2,432 82% 73k $656k (exactly $655,910) JA Game Studio
Badlands Crew - Drive, Command, Conquer $18.99 1,126 78% 34k $641k (exactly $641,482) Runner Duck
CRUEL $9.99 1,814 95% 54k $544k (exactly $543,656) James Dornan
TouHou Makuka Sai ~ Fantastic Danmaku Festival Part III $13.99 1,242 90% 37k $521k (exactly $521,267) 东方幕华祭制作组
Reality Break $24.99 683 80% 20k $512k (exactly $512,045) Element Games, LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.