Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + Runner

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Runner Adventure game?

Adventure + Runner

Of 293 developers who shipped a Runner Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 307 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $190 in the last 2 years and $240 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 141 developers shipped in the last year and 307 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 307 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Runner
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 293
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $299 → $449 → $359 → $298 → $210 → $281 → $179 (still earning) → $120 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Runner: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 293
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $185 (exactly $185)
Top 25% $1.1k (exactly $1,078)
Top 5% $13k (exactly $13,486)
Developers, 2 yr 293
Released games 1,043
Announced 307
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Runner
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure, Runner; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Platformer, Action-Adventure
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Colorful, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 19,113 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $190, 1 in 4 over $1.0k, 1 in 20 over $13k.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. Nearly all of the 188 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 307 games are announced against 141 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ghostrunner 2 older $39.99 7,981 80% 239k $9.6M (exactly $9,574,806) One More Level
Mirror's Edge™ Catalyst older $19.99 14,078 79% 422k $8.4M (exactly $8,442,577) DICE
Haste $19.99 12,690 92% 381k $7.6M (exactly $7,610,193) Landfall
STRIDE older $19.99 1,975 79% 59k $1.2M (exactly $1,184,408) Joy Way
Phantom Abyss older $19.99 1,962 81% 59k $1.2M (exactly $1,176,611) Team WIBY
Last Room older $29.99 953 73% 29k $857k (exactly $857,414) Quantum Forge Studios
ALTF4 older $2.99 9,452 80% 284k $848k (exactly $847,844) PUMPKIM
Climber Animals: Together older $3.99 6,014 73% 180k $720k (exactly $719,876) Devotion Interactive
VHOLUME $8.00 2,992 97% 90k $718k (exactly $718,080) Nathan Grange, Léonard Lemaitre, Niels… (Nathan Grange, Léonard Lemaitre, Niels Tiercelin)
I wanna be the Creator older $5.99 2,860 94% 86k $514k (exactly $513,942) Aikesi
Bionic Bay $19.99 750 84% 23k $450k (exactly $449,775) Psychoflow Studio, Mureena Oy
Island Notes $12.99 884 82% 27k $344k (exactly $344,495) KangBaoGame
Relooted $14.99 257 87% 7.7k $116k (exactly $115,573) Nyamakop
GuGu Pizza : Delivering Pizza to the Space Station? Boss, this is just not right! $6.99 517 87% 16k $108k (exactly $108,415) AnomalyGuys
WASD : The Adventure of Tori $3.99 730 83% 22k $87k (exactly $87,381) EVNA Games
Hell of an Office $14.99 121 89% 3.6k $54k (exactly $54,414) 43 Studios
JETRUNNER $9.99 118 96% 3.5k $35k (exactly $35,365) Riddlebit Software
Care Bears: To The Rescue $14.99 54 98% 1.6k $24k (exactly $24,284) Polygoat

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.