Do I ship it?

Games › Adventure › Adventure + Roguelite

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelite Adventure game?

Adventure + Roguelite

Of 924 developers who shipped a Roguelite Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,671 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×3.4 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $620k, ×1310 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 1,671 games are announced against 529 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 1,671 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Roguelite
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 924
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $4.0k → $4.2k → $2.9k → $3.6k → $2.2k → $1.2k (still earning) → $718 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Roguelite: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 924
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,617)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $16,783)
Top 5% $622k (exactly $622,198)
Developers, 2 yr 924
Released games 2,312
Announced 1,671
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure, Roguelite; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Action, RPG
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 254,800 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $620k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 446 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,671 games are announced against 529 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Dead Cells 2018 · $117M Back 4 Blood 2021 · $99M DAVE THE DIVER 2023 · $86M Cult of the Lamb 2022 · $84M Warhammer: Vermintide 2 2018 · $82M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dead Cells older $24.99 156,263 97% 4.7M $117M (exactly $117,150,371) Motion Twin
Back 4 Blood older $59.99 55,160 69% 1.7M $99M (exactly $99,271,452) Turtle Rock Studios
DAVE THE DIVER older $19.99 142,662 96% 4.3M $86M (exactly $85,554,401) MINTROCKET
Cult of the Lamb older $24.99 112,096 95% 3.4M $84M (exactly $84,038,371) Massive Monster
Warhammer: Vermintide 2 older $29.99 91,013 84% 2.7M $82M (exactly $81,884,396) Fatshark
Inscryption older $19.99 135,017 96% 4.1M $81M (exactly $80,969,695) Daniel Mullins Games
Gunfire Reborn older $19.99 88,536 93% 2.7M $53M (exactly $53,095,039) Gunfire Reborn Studio
The Scroll of Taiwu : Beyond The Dome $29.99 56,535 65% 1.7M $51M (exactly $50,864,540) ConchShip Games
Escape From Duckov $17.99 83,826 85% 2.5M $45M (exactly $45,240,892) Team Soda
DEATHLOOP older $59.99 19,910 76% 597k $36M (exactly $35,832,027) Arkane Studios
Blue Prince $29.99 17,498 85% 525k $16M (exactly $15,742,951) Dogubomb
Ravenswatch $24.99 16,908 79% 507k $13M (exactly $12,675,928) Passtech Games
Haste $19.99 12,690 92% 381k $7.6M (exactly $7,610,193) Landfall
CloverPit $9.99 24,710 90% 741k $7.4M (exactly $7,405,587) Panik Arcade
Magicraft $15.99 15,051 92% 452k $7.2M (exactly $7,219,965) Wave Games
Absolum $24.99 9,399 91% 282k $7.0M (exactly $7,046,430) Dotemu, Guard Crush Games, Supamonks
Rotwood $29.99 7,459 74% 224k $6.7M (exactly $6,710,862) Klei Entertainment
Jump Space · EA $19.99 10,724 85% 322k $6.4M (exactly $6,431,183) Keepsake Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.