Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelike Adventure game?

Adventure + Roguelike

Of 1,039 developers who shipped a Roguelike Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,747 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $490k, ×1049 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 1,747 games are announced against 605 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 1,747 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,039
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $2.1k → $2.6k → $2.5k → $3.6k → $1.2k → $899 (still earning) → $700 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,039
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,317)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,382)
Top 5% $498k (exactly $498,351)
Developers, 2 yr 1,039
Released games 2,721
Announced 1,747
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure, Roguelike; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, Action, RPG
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 181,084 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $490k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 504 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,747 games are announced against 605 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Don't Starve Together older $14.99 376,165 94% 11M $169M (exactly $169,161,400) Klei Entertainment
Dead Cells older $24.99 156,263 97% 4.7M $117M (exactly $117,150,371) Motion Twin
Inscryption older $19.99 135,017 96% 4.1M $81M (exactly $80,969,695) Daniel Mullins Games
Gunfire Reborn older $19.99 88,536 93% 2.7M $53M (exactly $53,095,039) Gunfire Reborn Studio
The Scroll of Taiwu : Beyond The Dome $29.99 56,535 65% 1.7M $51M (exactly $50,864,540) ConchShip Games
Skul: The Hero Slayer older $19.99 50,801 93% 1.5M $30M (exactly $30,465,360) SOUTHPAW GAMES
Don't Starve older $9.99 97,007 96% 2.9M $29M (exactly $29,072,998) Klei Entertainment
嗜血印 Bloody Spell older $24.99 34,184 89% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,627,745) 艺龙游戏
暖雪 Warm Snow older $17.99 35,270 92% 1.1M $19M (exactly $19,035,219) BadMudStudio
FTL: Faster Than Light older $9.99 62,763 94% 1.9M $19M (exactly $18,810,071) Subset Games
Blue Prince $29.99 17,498 85% 525k $16M (exactly $15,742,951) Dogubomb
Ravenswatch $24.99 16,908 79% 507k $13M (exactly $12,675,928) Passtech Games
CloverPit $9.99 24,710 90% 741k $7.4M (exactly $7,405,587) Panik Arcade
Magicraft $15.99 15,051 92% 452k $7.2M (exactly $7,219,965) Wave Games
White Knuckle · EA $16.99 13,356 98% 401k $6.8M (exactly $6,807,553) Dark Machine Games
Rotwood $29.99 7,459 74% 224k $6.7M (exactly $6,710,862) Klei Entertainment
Sephiria $17.99 11,582 94% 347k $6.3M (exactly $6,250,805) TEAM HORAY
Lost Castle 2 $17.99 10,851 78% 326k $5.9M (exactly $5,856,285) Hunter Studio
UFO 50 $24.99 7,134 94% 214k $5.3M (exactly $5,348,360) Mossmouth

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.