Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + Rhythm

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Rhythm Adventure game?

Adventure + Rhythm

Of 113 developers who shipped a Rhythm Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 220 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×3.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $330k, ×699 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 220 games are announced against 65 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 220 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Rhythm
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 113
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.8k → $599 → $921 → $8.2k → $1.5k → $1.8k → $1.2k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Rhythm: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 113
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,647)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $13,486)
Top 5% $332k (exactly $332,024)
Developers, 2 yr 113
Released games 398
Announced 220
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Rhythm
effort 3 / 10 · medium · audio sync, timing precision and music rights

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure, Rhythm; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Visual Novel, Action-Adventure
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 18,017 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $330k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 68 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 220 games are announced against 65 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition older $59.99 259,508 95% 7.8M $467M (exactly $467,036,548) FromSoftware, Inc.
Hi-Fi RUSH older $29.99 27,454 97% 824k $25M (exactly $24,700,364) Tango Gameworks
Metal: Hellsinger older $29.99 13,989 96% 420k $13M (exactly $12,585,903) The Outsiders
Crypt of the NecroDancer older $14.99 23,593 95% 708k $11M (exactly $10,609,772) Brace Yourself Games
BPM: BULLETS PER MINUTE older $19.99 9,598 91% 288k $5.8M (exactly $5,755,921) Awe Interactive
UNBEATABLE $27.99 6,552 92% 197k $5.5M (exactly $5,501,714) D-CELL GAMES
Yakuza 5 Remastered older $19.99 6,199 88% 186k $3.7M (exactly $3,717,540) RGG Studio
Everhood older $9.99 11,436 95% 343k $3.4M (exactly $3,427,369) Chris Nordgren, Jordi Roca
Sayonara Wild Hearts older $12.99 8,023 96% 241k $3.1M (exactly $3,126,563) Simogo
DEEMO -Reborn- older $24.99 3,188 87% 96k $2.4M (exactly $2,390,044) Rayark International Limited
Yunyun Syndrome!? Rhythm Psychosis $16.99 3,974 91% 119k $2.0M (exactly $2,025,548) Alliance Arts, WHO YOU
Ratatan · EA $24.99 2,449 85% 73k $1.8M (exactly $1,836,015) TVT Co. Ltd., Ratata Arts
Everhood 2 $19.99 2,207 74% 66k $1.3M (exactly $1,323,538) Chris Nordgren, Jordi Roca
In Falsus $39.99 788 89% 24k $945k (exactly $945,364) lowiro
Metro Gravity $12.99 852 92% 26k $332k (exactly $332,024) mrkogamedev
Rock Star Life Simulator $12.49 498 85% 15k $187k (exactly $186,601) HOGO Games
Archons $9.99 406 92% 12k $122k (exactly $121,678) BulletHell Studios
Afterlove EP $19.99 184 90% 5.5k $110k (exactly $110,345) Pikselnesia
Metal: Hellsinger VR $29.99 107 68% 3.2k $96k (exactly $96,268) Lab42, The Outsiders

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.