Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + Programming

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Programming Adventure game?

Adventure + Programming

Of 21 developers who shipped a Programming Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 57 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $630, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $68k, ×144 the market median. Revenue is up 50% on the market; 57 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 50% on the market, 57 announced, ×4.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Programming
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.5k → $4.4k → $899 → $449 → $748 → $2.4k → $20k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Programming: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $628 (exactly $628)
Top 25% $3.0k (exactly $2,994)
Top 5% $68k (exactly $68,377)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 111
Announced 57
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Programming
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure, Programming; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry 2D Platformer, Action, Automation
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Retro, Cute, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 941 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $630, 1 in 4 over $2.9k, 1 in 20 over $68k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 57 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hacknet older $9.99 16,910 93% 507k $5.1M (exactly $5,067,927) Team Fractal Alligator
Grey Hack · EA older $19.99 1,801 90% 54k $1.1M (exactly $1,080,060) Loading Home
Braid, Anniversary Edition older $19.99 1,761 92% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,056,072) Thekla, Inc.
Nimbatus - The Space Drone Constructor older $19.99 1,758 78% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,054,273) Stray Fawn Studio
Hacker Simulator older $24.99 1,230 74% 37k $922k (exactly $922,131) Save All Studio
Stone Story RPG older $29.99 893 90% 27k $803k (exactly $803,432) Rex Games, standardcombo
The Magic Circle older $19.99 1,080 91% 32k $648k (exactly $647,676) Question
Quadrilateral Cowboy older $19.99 897 92% 27k $538k (exactly $537,931) Blendo Games
Omega Crafter $24.99 529 77% 16k $397k (exactly $396,591) Preferred Networks
hack_me older $5.99 1,454 68% 44k $261k (exactly $261,284) Egor Magurin, Eugene Radaev
Karigurashi Ren'ai: Living on Borrowed Love $29.99 76 92% 2.3k $68k (exactly $68,377) ASa Project
MainFrames $12.99 166 88% 5.0k $65k (exactly $64,690) Assoupi
Beyond the Doors · EA $8.99 75 72% 2.3k $20k (exactly $20,228) Dream Error
Bit ESC $14.99 8 100% 240 $3.6k (exactly $3,598) Essssam
The Amateur Deity Society $4.99 20 100% 600 $3.0k (exactly $2,994) Robert Carlson
Yolo Space Hacker 2 - Mission Bahamas $19.99 4 75% 120 $2.4k (exactly $2,399) BKNLab
The Office Void $1.49 53 86% 1.6k $2.4k (exactly $2,369) Coldheart Entertainment
HELLO HACKER $5.99 5 100% 150 $898 (exactly $898) h3ll0h4ck3r
Battle Bits $4.99 5 40% 150 $748 (exactly $748) NecoPlanet

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.