Do I ship it?

Games › Adventure › Adventure + Outbreak Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Outbreak Sim Adventure game?

Adventure + Outbreak Sim

Of 40 developers who shipped an Outbreak Sim Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 65 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $630, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×2668 the market median. Revenue is up 710% on the market; 65 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 710% on the market, 65 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Outbreak Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 40
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $718 → $90 → $2.7k → $1.6k → $298 → $629 → $1.4k (still earning) → $12k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Outbreak Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 40
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $629 (exactly $629)
Top 25% $5.8k (exactly $5,838)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,267,166)
Developers, 2 yr 40
Released games 102
Announced 65
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 710% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Outbreak Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure, Outbreak Sim; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Survival, Action
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 2D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 67% positive over 22,338 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $630, 1 in 4 over $5.8k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 65 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

No More Room in Hell 2 2026 · $15M Dread Dawn 2024 · $1.3M Stubbs the Zombie in Rebel Without a Pulse 2021 · $1.1M Politics The Game 2025 · $757k Arizona Derby 2019 · $342k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
No More Room in Hell 2 $29.99 16,725 62% 502k $15M (exactly $15,047,482) Torn Banner Studios
Dread Dawn $19.99 2,113 71% 63k $1.3M (exactly $1,267,166) Kioop
Stubbs the Zombie in Rebel Without a Pulse older $19.99 1,781 89% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,068,066) Aspyr
Politics The Game $9.99 2,526 95% 76k $757k (exactly $757,042) Simplicity Games
Arizona Derby older $18.99 601 77% 18k $342k (exactly $342,390) Falcon Interactive
MOLDRISE $11.99 486 96% 15k $175k (exactly $174,814) Raffaele Picca
This Is the President older $14.99 359 67% 11k $161k (exactly $161,442) SuperPAC
EVOTINCTION older $29.99 173 86% 5.2k $156k (exactly $155,648) Spikewave Games
SLEEP AWAKE $29.99 164 71% 4.9k $148k (exactly $147,551) EYES OUT, LLC.
Baby Blues Nightmares - Toddler Horror Game older $12.99 93 91% 2.8k $36k (exactly $36,242) Steelkrill Studio
Embers of the Night $8.99 91 73% 2.7k $25k (exactly $24,543) 巨浪游戏
Quarantine Zombies: Contamination $9.99 74 48% 2.2k $22k (exactly $22,178) Stones Games
Wild Alone $10.99 38 47% 1.1k $13k (exactly $12,529) Wild Alone 21
FLESHBREAK $4.99 82 37% 2.5k $12k (exactly $12,275) Horubrain Interactive
Day Zero · EA $4.99 39 79% 1.2k $5.8k (exactly $5,838) Imdie Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.