Do I ship it?

Games › Adventure › Adventure + Otome

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Otome Adventure game?

Adventure + Otome

Of 74 developers who shipped an Otome Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 119 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.4k, ×11 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $250k, ×545 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 119 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 119 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Otome
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 74
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $14k → $24k → $3.1k → $13k → $18k → $2.4k → $5.1k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Otome: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 74
Bottom 30% $1.7k (exactly $1,704)
Median $5.4k (exactly $5,389)
Top 25% $32k (exactly $31,784)
Top 5% $259k (exactly $258,941)
Developers, 2 yr 74
Released games 342
Announced 119
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Otome
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure, Otome; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Dating Sim, Multiple Endings
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 18,803 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $5.4k, 1 in 4 over $31k, 1 in 20 over $250k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 8 in 10 of the 49 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 119 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Homicipher 2024 · $3.3M DRAMAtical Murder 2021 · $2.8M Hatoful Boyfriend 2014 · $1.7M Ken ga Kimi 2020 · $1.6M 私のリアルは充実しすぎている フルボイス版 2022 · $1.6M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Homicipher $13.99 7,821 96% 235k $3.3M (exactly $3,282,474) 八名木Games
DRAMAtical Murder older $19.99 4,640 96% 139k $2.8M (exactly $2,782,608) Nitro+CHiRAL
Hatoful Boyfriend older $9.99 5,533 94% 166k $1.7M (exactly $1,658,240) Mediatonic, Hato Moa
Ken ga Kimi older $49.99 1,065 93% 32k $1.6M (exactly $1,597,180) Rejet
私のリアルは充実しすぎている フルボイス版 older $9.99 5,322 96% 160k $1.6M (exactly $1,595,003) TetraScope
月华辉映之刻 $11.99 4,227 89% 127k $1.5M (exactly $1,520,452) 侠客狗工作室
BUSTAFELLOWS older $39.99 968 86% 29k $1.2M (exactly $1,161,310) NIPPON CULTURAL BROADCASTING EXTEND INC.
Amnesia™: Memories older $9.99 3,721 92% 112k $1.1M (exactly $1,115,184) Idea Factory, Design Factory
灾厄黑龙与谎言公主 $9.99 3,682 90% 110k $1.1M (exactly $1,103,495) 莓夜工作室
Nightshade/百花百狼 older $34.99 717 95% 22k $753k (exactly $752,635) Red Entertainment, LANTERN ROOMS
Meiji Tokyo Renka Full Moon $59.99 196 91% 5.9k $353k (exactly $352,741) dramatic create
我的恋爱逃生攻略 Love to Live $9.99 864 85% 26k $259k (exactly $258,941) 番茄炖肉制作组
Heart Cage $20.99 363 97% 11k $229k (exactly $228,581) RiceLoveCoffee
INtLOVErt Game Club $39.99 186 96% 5.6k $223k (exactly $223,144) じょせふ
Touhou Blooming Soul · EA $5.99 911 96% 27k $164k (exactly $163,707) 二色幽紫蝶
The Ethereal Dream $19.99 263 74% 7.9k $158k (exactly $157,721) 鸭子与葱制作组
The Silent Kingdom · EA $17.99 290 99% 8.7k $157k (exactly $156,513) Lucky Cat

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.