Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + Mystery Dungeon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Dungeon Adventure game?

Adventure + Mystery Dungeon

Of 289 developers who shipped a Mystery Dungeon Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 365 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×1.1 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $110k, ×233 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 365 games are announced against 154 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 365 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Mystery Dungeon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 289
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $1.0k → $1.4k → $750 → $358 → $1.8k → $359 (still earning) → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Mystery Dungeon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 289
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $538 (exactly $538)
Top 25% $4.1k (exactly $4,126)
Top 5% $111k (exactly $110,741)
Developers, 2 yr 289
Released games 846
Announced 365
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure, Mystery Dungeon; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Dungeon Crawler, Exploration
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 12,642 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $540, 1 in 4 over $4.1k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 165 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 365 games are announced against 154 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Resonance: A Plague Tale Legacy $49.99 3,558 92% 107k $5.3M (exactly $5,335,933) Asobo Studio
Reventure older $12.34 8,451 95% 254k $3.1M (exactly $3,128,560) Pixelatto
Touhou Genso Wanderer -Reloaded- older $34.99 1,734 93% 52k $1.8M (exactly $1,820,180) AQUASTYLE
Hammerwatch II older $24.99 1,871 60% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,402,689) Crackshell
The Classrooms · EA older $12.99 3,040 89% 91k $1.2M (exactly $1,184,688) Xefier Games, Hillcrest Games Inc.
Goblin Cleanup · EA $19.99 1,615 87% 48k $969k (exactly $968,515) Crisalu Games
Escape Dungeon 2 older $17.99 1,700 93% 51k $917k (exactly $917,490) Hide Games
In Verbis Virtus older $19.99 1,464 78% 44k $878k (exactly $877,961) Indomitus Games
Stonemachia $19.99 1,244 95% 37k $746k (exactly $746,027) Crossfall Games
FALL IN LABYRINTH older $19.99 1,073 95% 32k $643k (exactly $643,478) JUKKAKU GAMES
Spark in the Dark · EA $16.99 1,174 87% 35k $598k (exactly $598,388) Stellar Fish
The Shimmering Horizon and Cursed Blacksmith $19.99 983 58% 29k $590k (exactly $589,505) Ason
Skull Horde $12.99 1,083 81% 32k $422k (exactly $422,045) 8BitSkull
Nightmare Knight ~Sacred Maiden & Fallen Magic~ $17.99 557 86% 17k $301k (exactly $300,613) orzPINEz
EXD - Extra Dimensional $29.99 316 82% 9.5k $284k (exactly $284,305) Lords of Illusion
The Coma 2B: Catacomb $14.99 584 75% 18k $263k (exactly $262,625) Dvora Studio Co., Ltd.
TRADESMAN: Deal to Dealer $4.99 1,528 78% 46k $229k (exactly $228,742) AZAMATIKA

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.