Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + Multiple Endings

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Multiple Endings Adventure game?

Adventure + Multiple Endings

Of 2,164 developers who shipped a Multiple Endings Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 3,903 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×5.7 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $340k, ×729 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 3,903 games are announced against 1,236 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 3,903 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Multiple Endings
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 2,164
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.4k → $5.4k → $5.4k → $4.5k → $4.9k → $2.2k → $2.2k (still earning) → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Multiple Endings: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 2,164
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,695)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $21,557)
Top 5% $346k (exactly $346,343)
Developers, 2 yr 2,164
Released games 6,097
Announced 3,903
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Multiple Endings
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure, Multiple Endings; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Choices Matter, Visual Novel, RPG
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 667,240 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $340k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 1,187 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 3,903 games are announced against 1,236 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition older $49.99 823,357 96% 25M $1.2B (exactly $1,234,788,493) CD PROJEKT RED
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey older $59.99 172,149 89% 5.2M $310M (exactly $309,816,555) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft Shanghai)
Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition older $59.99 164,914 79% 4.9M $297M (exactly $296,795,726) Techland
Detroit: Become Human older $39.99 226,411 96% 6.8M $272M (exactly $271,625,277) Quantic Dream
Hollow Knight: Silksong $19.99 386,977 89% 12M $232M (exactly $232,070,107) Team Cherry
Hollow Knight older $14.99 502,960 96% 15M $226M (exactly $226,181,112) Team Cherry
Persona 5 Royal older $59.99 91,682 96% 2.8M $165M (exactly $165,000,095) ATLUS
Stellar Blade™ $59.99 61,289 93% 1.8M $110M (exactly $110,301,813) SHIFT UP Corporation
Lies of P older $59.99 58,411 91% 1.8M $105M (exactly $105,122,277) NEOWIZ
SILENT HILL 2 $69.99 43,367 94% 1.3M $91M (exactly $91,057,690) Bloober Team SA
Dragon Age™: The Veilguard $59.99 41,393 67% 1.2M $74M (exactly $74,494,982) BioWare
Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon $44.99 33,560 87% 1.0M $45M (exactly $45,295,932) Questline
SILENT HILL f $69.99 19,061 80% 572k $40M (exactly $40,022,382) NeoBards Entertainment Ltd.
The Blood of Dawnwalker $69.99 15,789 86% 474k $33M (exactly $33,152,163) Rebel Wolves
Magical Girl Witch Trials $29.99 29,869 96% 896k $27M (exactly $26,873,139) Acacia, Re,AER
Sultan's Game $24.99 25,061 93% 752k $19M (exactly $18,788,232) Double Cross
Five Nights at Freddy's: Secret of the Mimic $39.99 10,874 86% 326k $13M (exactly $13,045,538) Steel Wool Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.