Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + Metroidvania

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Metroidvania Adventure game?

Adventure + Metroidvania

Of 413 developers who shipped a Metroidvania Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,272 more are announced, ×5.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.5k, ×9.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $960; 1 in 20 cleared $370k, ×794 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 1,272 games are announced against 230 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.5 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 1,272 announced, ×5.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Metroidvania
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 413
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.7k → $2.9k → $7.2k → $6.2k → $6.6k → $6.1k → $3.6k (still earning) → $3.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Metroidvania: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 413
Bottom 30% $958 (exactly $958)
Median $4.5k (exactly $4,497)
Top 25% $34k (exactly $33,866)
Top 5% $377k (exactly $377,211)
Developers, 2 yr 413
Released games 1,491
Announced 1,272
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Metroidvania
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure, Metroidvania; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Exploration, Action-Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 412,931 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $960, median $4.5k, 1 in 4 over $33k, 1 in 20 over $370k.

3 in 10 developers made under $960. 8 in 10 of the 217 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,272 games are announced against 230 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hollow Knight: Silksong $19.99 386,977 89% 12M $232M (exactly $232,070,107) Team Cherry
Hollow Knight older $14.99 502,960 96% 15M $226M (exactly $226,181,112) Team Cherry
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ older $39.99 153,782 88% 4.6M $184M (exactly $184,492,265) Respawn Entertainment
Ori and the Will of the Wisps older $29.99 136,019 96% 4.1M $122M (exactly $122,376,294) Moon Studios GmbH
Dead Cells older $24.99 156,263 97% 4.7M $117M (exactly $117,150,371) Motion Twin
CONTROL Ultimate Edition older $39.99 50,602 86% 1.5M $61M (exactly $60,707,219) Remedy Entertainment
Blasphemous older $24.99 54,724 90% 1.6M $41M (exactly $41,026,583) The Game Kitchen
Ori and the Blind Forest: Definitive Edition older $19.99 62,690 94% 1.9M $38M (exactly $37,595,193) Moon Studios GmbH
Batman: Arkham Asylum Game of the Year Edition older $19.99 62,057 96% 1.9M $37M (exactly $37,215,583) Rocksteady Studios
Nine Sols older $29.99 40,138 94% 1.2M $36M (exactly $36,112,159) RedCandleGames
Revenge of the Savage Planet $29.99 2,845 86% 85k $2.6M (exactly $2,559,646) Raccoon Logic Studios Inc.
Öoo $9.99 6,575 99% 197k $2.0M (exactly $1,970,528) NamaTakahashi, tiny cactus studio, Tsuy… (NamaTakahashi, tiny cactus studio, Tsuyomi)
NINJA GAIDEN: Ragebound $24.99 2,500 92% 75k $1.9M (exactly $1,874,250) The Game Kitchen
Constance $19.99 2,822 82% 85k $1.7M (exactly $1,692,353) Blue Backpack
System Shock 2: 25th Anniversary Remaster $29.99 1,803 87% 54k $1.6M (exactly $1,622,159) Nightdive Studios, Looking Glass Studio… (Nightdive Studios, Looking Glass Studios, Irrational Games)
SiNiSistar 2 $14.99 3,545 90% 106k $1.6M (exactly $1,594,186) Uu
Kotama and Academy Citadel $19.99 2,542 80% 76k $1.5M (exactly $1,524,437) Atomstring Games
Tails of Iron 2: Whiskers of Winter $24.99 1,851 79% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,387,695) Odd Bug Studio
Supraworld · EA $29.99 1,471 91% 44k $1.3M (exactly $1,323,459) Supra Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.