Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + Local Co-Op

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Local Co-Op Adventure game?

Adventure + Local Co-Op

Of 305 developers who shipped a Local Co-Op Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 483 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.7k, ×9.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $690; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2809 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 483 games are announced against 158 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 483 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Local Co-Op
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 305
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $17k → $22k → $3.3k → $7.0k → $5.8k → $9.4k → $3.0k (still earning) → $683 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Local Co-Op: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 305
Bottom 30% $683 (exactly $683)
Median $4.7k (exactly $4,716)
Top 25% $31k (exactly $31,245)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,334,066)
Developers, 2 yr 305
Released games 1,201
Announced 483
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Local Co-Op
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure, Local Co-Op; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Co-op, Action, Local Multiplayer
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Colorful, Family Friendly
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 157,786 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $690, median $4.7k, 1 in 4 over $31k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $690. 8 in 10 of the 166 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 483 games are announced against 158 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
It Takes Two older $39.99 218,492 95% 6.6M $262M (exactly $262,124,852) Hazelight Studios
Left 4 Dead 2 older $9.99 816,316 97% 24M $245M (exactly $244,649,905) Valve
Split Fiction $49.99 78,378 97% 2.4M $118M (exactly $117,543,487) Hazelight Studios
Human Fall Flat older $19.99 174,835 94% 5.2M $105M (exactly $104,848,549) No Brakes Games
A Way Out older $29.99 78,174 87% 2.3M $70M (exactly $70,333,148) Hazelight Studios
LEGO® Star Wars™: The Skywalker Saga older $49.99 38,294 90% 1.1M $57M (exactly $57,429,512) TT Games
Castle Crashers® older $14.99 109,654 96% 3.3M $49M (exactly $49,311,404) The Behemoth
NARUTO SHIPPUDEN: Ultimate Ninja STORM 4 older $19.99 72,409 90% 2.2M $43M (exactly $43,423,677) CyberConnect2 Co. Ltd.
Spiritfarer®: Farewell Edition older $29.99 47,176 94% 1.4M $42M (exactly $42,444,247) Thunder Lotus
DRAGON BALL XENOVERSE older $64.98 17,554 89% 527k $34M (exactly $34,219,768) DIMPS
Grounded 2 · EA $29.99 21,442 82% 643k $19M (exactly $19,291,367) Obsidian Entertainment, Eidos-Montréal
LEGO® Batman™: Legacy of the Dark Knight $69.99 8,728 95% 262k $18M (exactly $18,326,182) TT Games
REANIMAL $39.99 13,809 78% 414k $17M (exactly $16,566,657) Tarsier Studios
Absolum $24.99 9,399 91% 282k $7.0M (exactly $7,046,430) Dotemu, Guard Crush Games, Supamonks
Rotwood $29.99 7,459 74% 224k $6.7M (exactly $6,710,862) Klei Entertainment
Lost Castle 2 $17.99 10,851 78% 326k $5.9M (exactly $5,856,285) Hunter Studio
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Splintered Fate $29.99 4,143 83% 124k $3.7M (exactly $3,727,457) Super Evil Megacorp
The Adventures of Elliot: The Millennium Tales $59.99 1,687 78% 51k $3.0M (exactly $3,036,094) Square Enix, Claytechworks
Sunderfolk $49.99 1,890 93% 57k $2.8M (exactly $2,834,433) Secret Door

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.