Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + Investigation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Investigation Adventure game?

Adventure + Investigation

Of 917 developers who shipped an Investigation Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,719 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×4.0 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $390k, ×837 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 1,719 games are announced against 518 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 1,719 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Investigation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 917
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $2.7k → $2.7k → $3.6k → $3.0k → $2.1k → $1.4k (still earning) → $898 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Investigation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 917
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,919)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $15,518)
Top 5% $398k (exactly $397,601)
Developers, 2 yr 917
Released games 2,694
Announced 1,719
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Investigation
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure, Investigation; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Puzzle, Point & Click
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 426,228 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $390k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 8 in 10 of the 513 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,719 games are announced against 518 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
PEAK $7.99 301,964 94% 9.1M $72M (exactly $72,380,771) Team PEAK
Indiana Jones and the Great Circle $69.99 13,058 89% 392k $27M (exactly $27,417,883) MachineGames
Magical Girl Witch Trials $29.99 29,869 96% 896k $27M (exactly $26,873,139) Acacia, Re,AER
Big Walk $19.99 32,470 95% 974k $19M (exactly $19,472,259) House House
L.A. Noire older $19.99 31,099 85% 933k $19M (exactly $18,650,070) Team Bondi, Rockstar Leeds
Content Warning older $7.99 72,444 93% 2.2M $17M (exactly $17,364,827) Zorro, Wilnyl, Philip, thePetHen, Skog
Heavy Rain older $19.99 26,503 85% 795k $16M (exactly $15,893,849) Quantic Dream
Blue Prince $29.99 17,498 85% 525k $16M (exactly $15,742,951) Dogubomb
Judgment older $39.99 9,407 93% 282k $11M (exactly $11,285,578) RGG Studio
Sherlock Holmes: The Devil's Daughter older $29.99 12,076 80% 362k $11M (exactly $10,864,777) Frogwares
Back to the Dawn $23.99 8,555 94% 257k $6.2M (exactly $6,157,034) Metal Head Games
The Roottrees are Dead $19.99 9,700 96% 291k $5.8M (exactly $5,817,090) Evil Trout Inc.
The Drifter $19.99 4,735 97% 142k $2.8M (exactly $2,839,580) Powerhoof, Dave Lloyd
Escape Simulator 2 $19.99 4,292 92% 129k $2.6M (exactly $2,573,912) Pine Studio
The Incident at Galley House $19.99 4,087 94% 123k $2.5M (exactly $2,450,974) William Rous, Evil Trout Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.