Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Adventure Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Adventure

Of 941 developers who shipped an Adventure Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,579 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×2.0 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $760k, ×508 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 1,579 games are announced against 543 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.0 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 1,579 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 941
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.4k → $7.5k → $4.5k → $3.8k → $3.9k → $3.8k → $3.0k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 941
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,967)
Top 25% $30k (exactly $30,221)
Top 5% $760k (exactly $760,339)
Developers, 2 yr 941
Released games 2,354
Announced 1,579
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim, Adventure; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Exploration, RPG
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Story Rich, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 203,012 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $30k, 1 in 20 over $760k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 554 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,579 games are announced against 543 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cyberpunk 2077 older $59.99 883,400 87% 27M $1.6B (exactly $1,589,854,980) CD PROJEKT RED
Euro Truck Simulator 2 older $19.99 756,984 97% 23M $454M (exactly $453,963,305) SCS Software
Sons Of The Forest older $29.99 284,572 88% 8.5M $256M (exactly $256,029,428) Endnight Games Ltd
American Truck Simulator older $19.99 165,692 97% 5.0M $99M (exactly $99,365,492) SCS Software
HITMAN World of Assassination older $29.99 58,655 87% 1.8M $53M (exactly $52,771,904) IO Interactive A/S
The Planet Crafter older $23.99 68,855 96% 2.1M $50M (exactly $49,554,944) Miju Games
Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon $44.99 33,560 87% 1.0M $45M (exactly $45,295,932) Questline
Medieval Dynasty older $34.99 43,074 90% 1.3M $45M (exactly $45,214,778) Render Cube
Abiotic Factor $34.99 42,075 95% 1.3M $44M (exactly $44,166,128) Deep Field Games
SnowRunner older $29.99 46,343 90% 1.4M $42M (exactly $41,694,797) Saber Interactive
Indiana Jones and the Great Circle $69.99 13,058 89% 392k $27M (exactly $27,417,883) MachineGames
Big Walk $19.99 32,470 95% 974k $19M (exactly $19,472,259) House House
RoadCraft $39.99 13,527 74% 406k $16M (exactly $16,228,342) Saber Interactive
Hello Kitty Island Adventure $39.99 9,637 93% 289k $12M (exactly $11,561,509) Sunblink
Shadows of Doubt $24.99 14,646 82% 439k $11M (exactly $10,980,106) ColePowered Games
MISERY $12.99 20,015 85% 600k $7.8M (exactly $7,799,846) Platypus Entertainment
StarRupture · EA $19.99 12,333 80% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,396,100) Creepy Jar
Little Witch in the Woods $19.99 11,691 89% 351k $7.0M (exactly $7,011,093) SUNNY SIDE UP

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.