Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + Hex Grid

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Hex Grid Adventure game?

Adventure + Hex Grid

Of 20 developers who shipped a Hex Grid Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.5k, ×7.4 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.5M, ×7403 the market median. Revenue is up 140% on the market; 37 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 140% on the market, 37 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Hex Grid
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.3k → $143k → $6.6k → $19k → $1.4k → $2.2k → $10k (still earning) → $3.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Hex Grid: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $1.4k (exactly $1,436)
Median $3.5k (exactly $3,506)
Top 25% $25k (exactly $24,762)
Top 5% $3.5M (exactly $3,516,321)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 93
Announced 37
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 140% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Hex Grid
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure, Hex Grid; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Turn-Based Strategy, RPG, Roguelike
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Difficult, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 7,258 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $3.5k, 1 in 4 over $24k, 1 in 20 over $3.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 8 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 37 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
For The King older $19.99 31,038 87% 931k $19M (exactly $18,613,489) IronOak Games
Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™ older $39.99 14,047 61% 421k $17M (exactly $16,852,186) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
ENDLESS Legend™ older $29.99 14,413 83% 432k $13M (exactly $12,967,376) AMPLITUDE Studios
For The King II older $24.99 12,708 71% 381k $9.5M (exactly $9,527,188) IronOak Games
Armello older $24.99 11,013 82% 330k $8.3M (exactly $8,256,446) League of Geeks
Age of Wonders III older $29.99 7,020 81% 211k $6.3M (exactly $6,315,894) Triumph Studios
King's Bounty II older $39.99 4,473 61% 134k $5.4M (exactly $5,366,258) Fulqrum Games
Solasta II · EA $39.99 2,931 75% 88k $3.5M (exactly $3,516,321) Tactical Adventures
Expeditions: Viking older $29.99 3,293 82% 99k $3.0M (exactly $2,962,712) Logic Artists
Curious Expedition 2 older $19.99 3,861 88% 116k $2.3M (exactly $2,315,442) Maschinen-Mensch
The Last Flame $19.99 2,744 85% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,645,577) Hotloop
In Falsus $39.99 788 89% 24k $945k (exactly $945,364) lowiro
Inkshade $19.99 620 87% 19k $372k (exactly $371,814) Studio Vezelle
Dread Admiral $13.99 59 89% 1.8k $25k (exactly $24,762) Tescrin Games
Xenowars $19.99 31 83% 930 $19k (exactly $18,591) Strategeion Studios
Sigilfarer: A Dice-Rolling Roguelite $11.99 33 72% 990 $12k (exactly $11,870) Viabo Games
Seedborne Soldiers $11.99 28 89% 840 $10k (exactly $10,072) Hat Wobble Games
Wild Country $24.99 11 54% 330 $8.2k (exactly $8,247) Lost Native
Destination Gemini $8.99 13 100% 390 $3.5k (exactly $3,506) Hubert Cachat

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.